Mia Diva (2.25 York)
I’ve written the Racing Post Spotlight for York’s 6f Goffs Uk Premier Yearling Stakes (2.25) and tipped Fleeting Prince in the paper. At the time of writing he was 16-1 with William Hill but is now less those half those odds in places and I’m going to desert him, despite his low draw looking advantageous on yesterday’s evidence. Dangers, as you’d imagine in a 22-runner line-up, are numerous and I’d rather throw a dart at one at a huge price. Step forward, John Quinn’s MIA DIVA, who also looks well drawn in stall nine. The filly looked progressive after her debut fifth at Newcastle, scoring at Catterick before going down by a short head at Hamilton. She could only finish 12 of 13 in a 6f nursery at Newmarket last time but got no cover form her poor low draw in stall three of 13 (first four drawn 12, eight, nine and 13) and failed to settle as a result. She’s fitted with a tongue-tie for the first time today – a positive for the yard and for her sire, Exceed And Excel, and she looks over-priced at around the 33-1 mark.
VIA SERENDIPITY (3.00 York)
The mile Clipper Logistics Handicap (3.00) makes appeal as a betting medium because David Barron’s consistent but hard-to-win-with Kynren heads the market at odds of 9-2. He’ll no doubt be thereabouts but his Royal Hunt Cup fifth moved his losing run onto ten, a losing streak stretching back to September 2017. Vale Of Kent topped my list of horses to follow from Glorious Goodwood, as he ran a huge race to finish third against the draw and pace bias in the Golden Mile. However, since 2007, Mark Johnston’s Ebor Festival runners who prepped at Goodwood are 1-66 for a loss of £60.50 to a £1 level stake at SP. Since this distance was re-measured to 7f 192 yards, 15 of the 30 course and distance winners came from stalls one, two or three, with a further nine winners coming from stalls four, five and six, suggesting it could pay to concentrate on the six lowest draws. The one I like is VIA SERENDIPITY (stall six). One school of thought is that he needs a field of 11 or fewer runners in order to prove effective (his wins have come in fields of eight, ten, 11, eight and nine runners), though he probably just needs this one-mile trip. His record over this distance, when returned to the track within six weeks reads 86121311666 (4-11) for a profit of £14.50. HIs last-time-out sixth at the Shergar Cup meeting was actually much better than it looked as he went off stupidly fast – the Racing Post described his effort as ‘pressed leader at strong pace’ whereas the five who finished in front of him were all ridden patiently. Waarif, the other front-runner (re-opposes here), dropped away to finish last of the ten runners. There’s not a massive amount of pace in today’s line-up he he shouldn’t be as big as 20-1.
CONSTANZIA (7.30 Leicester)
The centre of the July Couse was badly cut up at Newmarket last Saturday and those who raced on that part of the track were at a huge disadvantage. The bias was most obvious in the 7f fillies’ nursery won by Lady Red Moon (stall one of eight), whose trainer had reportedly walked the track beforehand and told her jockey to stick to the rail like glue. They split into two groups of four, with 33-1 shot CONSTANZIA taking the centre route from stall five. She did second best of the quarter who raced down the middle and that effort can be upgraded. Slow turf should hold no fears on breeding and she’s worth an each-way interest in the 7f Gallowgate Nursery at Leicester this evening (7.30).
TODAY’S BEST BETS
Mia Diva – York 2.25 (0.5pts each-way, 66-1 Betfair, Paddy Power, both paying five places)
Via Serendipity – York 3.00 (1.5pts each-way, 22-1 generally, Sky Bet paying six places)
Constanazia – Leicester 7.30 (0.5pts each-way, 16-1 generally, several firms paying five places)
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