Our top tipster has a huge number of stats at his disposal and has highlighted the horses it should pay to follow in Britain today.
CHRISTMAS IN USA (12.30 Sedgefield)
Nick Alexander has his string in excellent form, sending out four winners from 16 runners in the past fortnight. His final runner yesterday was just touched off at 40-1 in the bumper at Ayr and now could be the time to side with CHRISTMAS IN USA who goes in the Watch Sky Sports Racing In HD Conditional Jockeys’ Handicap Hurdle (12.30). The seven-year-old benefitted from a wind operation last season, scoring on his third and fourth runs back after the surgery. He was only eighth of 14 at Kelso on his latest outing but would have needed that after a six-month break. He looks the pace angle in today’s race and his two main market rivals – Millie The Minx and Sweet Marmalade – both might improve for the run having had wind surgery since their latest outings. The latter’s trainer Brian Ellison is 0-20 with his ‘first-time wind op’ runners over jumps.
The Paul Nicholls-trained six-year-old jumped out to his left when runner-up at right-handed Exeter on his reappearance and chase debut last month, so it might seem odd that I’m backing him to go one better on another right-handed track. However, he has four right-handed wins to his name, a course record of 1112 (3-4) and he could be in receipt of an easy lead on a track that traditionally favours front runners. Odds-on favourite Brewin’upastorm impressed when coming from off the pace to score at Carlisle on his chase debut but he’s only ever won on his seasonal debut (now four from four if we include his point-to-point success), recording figures of 44F42 (0-5) on his second or subsequent starts (albeit often in top company).
MRS GREY (4.00 Ludlow)
Venetia Williams and Tom George don’t have a great record when switching a horse from fences back to hurdles and their runners in Ludlow’s 2m5f Official Photographers UK Amateur Riders’ Handicap Hurdle (4.00) – Longhousesignora and Stamp Your Feet, currently best priced at 6-1 and 13-2 respectively - could be worth opposing. Since 2011, Williams is just two from 60 under these conditions (-£54.33 to a £1 level stake) and George is two from 53 (-£46.70). Take them on with MRS GREY to small each-way stakes. She was tailed off here on her comeback last month but blew a fuse in the paddock and ran as though the outing were badly needed. She drops back down to Class 4 level, has one of the more capable riders on board and was a solid third over course and distance in this grade on her final outing last term.
TODAY’S BEST BETS
Christmas In Usa – 12.30 Sedgefield (2pts win, 3-1 bet365, 11-4 generally)
Southfield Stone – 2.35 (1pt win, 9-4 generally)
Mrs Grey – 4.00 Ludlow (0.5pt each-way, 20-1 bet365)
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