Our top tipster has a huge number of stats at his disposal and has highlighted the horses it should pay to follow in Britain and Ireland today.
There’s a headwind forecast at Doncaster and, like yesterday, it’s going to be difficult to win from the front. The early pace is drawn low in this nursery and a middle to low draw could prove advantageous. John Quinn's Keep Busy (stall 9 of 15) was never at the races at Ripon last time, trailing home a 16-length last of six. However, that was in Listed company and, even in the small field, her stall 1 draw was a big disadvantage (they finished in reverse stall order, stall 6, 5, 4, 3, 2 and 1). That run aside, her 6f record reads 11 (2-2) and had we bet all offspring of first-season sire Night Of Thunder we would have won 21 of our 78 bets (27% strike-rate) for a profit of £27.99 to a £1 level stake at SP. Ignoring the 5f runs increases the profit to £34.59.
Another who looks sure to be ridden patiently is Taste The Nectar (stall 5). She improved for the switch to nursery company and first-time cheekpieces when a half-length second at Yarmouth last month and her come-from-behind style was no help when fifth at Chelmsford next time.
There was a huge bias over the straight 7f at Cork’s meeting on September 1st, with those berthed high enjoying a massive advantage. The bias was obvious by the time Dermot Weld’s newcomer Sheranda went to post for the 17-runner fillies’ maiden yet she still went off as the 7-2 favourite from the worst of the draw in stall 1. Held up on the far side, she made her move at halfway, cutting down the front-runners on her flank but having no answer to the stands’ side group. In the circumstances, it was a huge effort to finish a four-length fifth and she’s a strong bet in this maiden.
Hart Stopper usually struggles on tracks with significant undulations and it’s no coincidence that his wins have come at Haydock (twice), Windsor (once) and Yarmouth (three times) – all flat tracks. He’s yet to race at Doncaster but the track should suit and his patient running style will be an asset in this lady riders' handicap (4.20). His full handicap record on flat turf tracks reads 1114116214 (6-10), with the latest defeat excusable as his saddle slipped.
TODAY’S BEST BETS
Keep Busy – 2.10 Doncaster (1pt e/w, 16-1 generally, use a firm paying 5 places such as William Hill and Sky Bet)
Taste The Nectar – 2.10 Doncaster (1pt e/w, Taste The Nectar, 40-1 William Hill, 33-1 generally)
Sheranda – 3.05 Listowel (3pts win, 11-4 Betfred, Totesport, 5-2 generally)
Hart Stopper – 4.20 (2pts win, 15-2 bet365, betVictor, 7-1 generally)
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