Our top tipster has a huge number of stats at his disposal and has highlighted the horses it should pay to follow in Britain today
ISLAND STORM (2.30 Kempton)
Heather Main’s two-year-olds have a good record when running on the all-weather on their second starts, with six of the 27 qualifiers scoring (22.2% strike-rate) for a profit of £85.83 to a £1 level stake at SP. Nine of the beaten horses made the frame, including Lapidary, her latest runner under these conditions who was third at 50-1. Of the 27 qualifiers, only ten had made their debuts on turf, with four winning at the second time of asking. ISLAND STORM showed obvious signs of inexperience but still hinted at ability when seventh of 12 at Windsor nine days ago and is worth a speculative each-way interest in Matchbook 2% Net Win Novice Auction Stakes at Kempton (2.30). His sire, Anjaal, has had only ten runners on Polytrack, with five winning (11-1, 8-1, 6-1, 7-2 and 4-5) for a profit of £24.30 to a £1 stake (one of the beaten horses when second at 16-1).
BUSBY (5.05 Kempton)
It’s always tough for jockeys on wide-drawn prominent racers at Chelmsford. Do you ride aggressively from the start to try and get a good early pitch towards the inside rail, at the risk of getting in a pace war with better-drawn rivals, or do you take a pull, switch to the inner and hope the pace collapses? Kieran O’Neill chose option one on BUSBY ten days ago, pressing the strong pace from the worst of the draw in stall nine of nine. The headwind in the straight didn’t aid his cause either and he faded into a three-length seventh. The winner and runner-up came from well off the pace and his run can be upgraded. He’s well drawn in stall two of ten in the 6f Matchbook VIP Handicap (5.05) and Martin Dwyer, on board for his three previous wins (two at this venue), returns to the saddle. His full record in 6f handicaps on the all-weather reads 113331637 (3-9), improving to 1331 (2-4) at Kempton only. The first defeat came by just half a length from a poor draw in stall nine of nine and the other by just under two lengths from stall eight of nine. The long-absent Sparkalot (stall four) will be dangerous but last night’s 12-1 is a distant memory
TODAY’S BEST BETS
Island Storm – Kempton 2.30 (0.5pts each-way, 12-1 bet365, 11-1 betVictor)
Busby – Kempton 5.05 (0.5pts each-way, 12-1 generally)
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