Top tipster Andrew Mount struck with sole selection Harston on Monday (2pts at 3-1) and has five bets across four races on the opening day of the Glorious Goodwood meeting
LALIPOUR – (1.30 Beverley, 1pt wn - 4/1)
Adrian Nicholls has a great record in sellers, scoring with ten of his 22 runners (45.5% strike-rate) for a huge profit of £53.90 to a £1 level stake at SP. LALIPOUR, not beaten far when fourth in a 1m4f handicap at Hamilton last time, can be backed when he bids to continue the sequence in this selling handicap.
BREATH CAUGHT – (1.50 Goodwood, 0.5pt each-way - 28/1)
Day one of Glorious Goodwood provides plenty of challenges for punters – will the ground, described as soft, good to soft in places, on Monday afternoon dry out quickly? Will the forecast headwind play havoc with frontrunners? Will there be a significant draw bias? These questions are difficult to answer and that’s why I’m keeping the stakes small on Tuesday.
First up is the 1m2f Chester Cup Handicap, a race that often goes to Mark Johnston. He has three runners, including last year’s one-two Maydanny and Sky Defender and both have low draws, usually helpful given their prominent running styles. However, there are plenty of other pace angles in this race and, with the wind likely to be in their faces in the straight, I’d rather side with a hold-up performer.
Step forward Ralph Beckett’s BREATH CAUGHT, who would have needed his belated comeback outing when eighth of 11 at Sandown 24 day ago. That race was run in a fast time and he was only just chinned by Sky Defemder at Epsom second time out last term when doing best of those to come from off the pace. The yard has a good recent record in Goodwood handicaps (nine winners from 49 in the past five years, +£24.63 to a £1 level stake at SP) and if the pace collapses he could surprise at juicy odds.
ISHVARA – (4.10 Goodwood, 0.5pts each-way - 50/1)
ISHVARA improved for first-time cheekpieces almost a year ago to the day, finishing second by a head at 22-1 in a 5f handicap at Ascot, and looks interesting in a first-time visor. Her 5f handicap record in headgear stands at 22202 (0-5), with the latest defeat by Arecibo, subsequently placed in Group 1 company at Royal Ascot, who was clearly thrown in off a mark of 99.
Progeny of Dutch Art show a profit of £37.63 to a £1 level stake when visored for the first time, with the three and four-year-old handicappers six from 39 for a profit of £66.88. She enjoys cut in the ground and could be well drawn towards the middle of the track.
GELLHORN and LOVELY BREEZE impressed in different ways when finishing one-two at Newmarket last time. GELLHORN won well despite failing to settle for the first half of the race and LOVELY BREEZE did well to finish so close under a patient ride on a track that was strongly favouring early pace.
GELLHORN is most likely to appreciate the easier ground on breeding but I want to save on Huge Palmer’s runner. I’ll be doing the forecast as well.
Today’s Best Bets
Lalipour – 1pt win – 1.30 Beverley (4-1 bet365 was the only price at the time of writing)
Breath Caught – 0.5pt each-way – 1.50 Goodwood (28-1 bet365, 25-1 generally, 22-1 Sky Bet, seven places)
Ishvara – 0.5pt each-way – 4.10 Goodwood (50-1 bet365, 40-1 generally, 33-1 Sky Bet, six places)
Gellhorn – 1.5pts win – 5.50 Goodwood (100-30 generally)
Lovely Breeze – 0.5pt win – 5.50 Goodwood (9-2 bet365)
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