Our top tipster has a huge number of stats at his disposal and has highlighted the horses it should pay to follow in Britain and Ireland today.
DEPOSIT (1.50 Kempton)
First View clocked a very fast time when landing a one-mile novice contest at Kempton on November 5th and it’s a race that I expect to work out very well. DEPOSIT was only 12th of the 14 runners that day but Raceform gave him the same speed figure for that effort as the one achieved by Book Review for his heavy-ground Nottingham second and he's as short as 13-8 for the British EBF Matchbook Future Stayers Novice Stakes (1.50) whereas Deposit is as big as 150-1 in places. Luke Morris takes over from a 5lb claimer and in-form David Simcock’s juveniles usually improved plenty on their second outings.
I was doing the live paddock reporting for William Hill radio when OUT FOR A DUCK made her debut at Southwell recently and she certainly took the eye. She has plenty of size and scope but was very green in the preliminaries and in the race itself, making her staying-on 33-1 fourth all the more meritorious. I wrote her up in the Racing Post Weekender a few days later and have napped her in the Racing Post naps table today. Sadly, the early 100-1 has long gone but she’s still worth a small each-way interest at around the 20-1 mark.
ZEFFERINO has improved markedly since stepped back up to one mile and is taken to defy a 4lb rise for his latest Chelmsford victory. That win came from stall 11 and, given his come-from-behind-style, he’s basically draw-proof, so don’t be put off by stall 12 tonight. His record at the trip for his current yard now reads 1311 (3-4) and he looks set to encounter the required strong pace.
AFFLUENCE (7.15 Chelmsford)
AFFLUENCE very much caught the eye when fourth under a 7lb claimer at Wolverhampton on his latest all-weather start and can return to winning ways in the 1m6f Christmas Party Nights Handicap (7.15). Martin Smith’s four’s year old, very weak in the betting at Wolverhampton, was always trapped wide and has since placed over hurdles. He’s finished in the top three in all three previous visits to the Essex venue
AMJAADY (7.45 Chelmsford)
David O’Meara has scored with his last three visored first-time all-weather runners and AMJAADY (stall two of 15) is taken to land the 1m2f Celebrate November’s Hero Richard Shepherd Handicap at Chelmsford tonight (7.45). The three-year-old has had two runs over trip and track for his current yard, going down by a neck in first-time cheekpieces on his latest outing and finishing second by a short head from a difficult draw the time before. He clocked a good speed figure for each of those runs and it will be surprising if he isn’t there or thereabouts.
TODAY’S BEST BETS
Deposit – 1.50 Kempton (0.5pt each-way, 150-1 Betfair, Paddy Power, 125-1 generally)
Out For A Duck - 5.45 Chelmsford (0.5pt each-way, 22-1 Betfair, Paddy Power)
Zefferino – 6.15 Chelmsford (1pt each-way, 11-2 William Hill, four places)
Affluence – 7.15 Chelmsford (1pt each-way, 7-2 generally)
Amjaady – 7.45 Chelmsford (1.5pts each-way, 4-1 generally, most firms paying four places)
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