Our top tipster has a huge number of stats at his disposal and has highlighted the horses it should pay to follow in Britain today
ARCTIC FLOWER (4.50 Salisbury)
John Bridger’s veteran mare had no answer to short-priced favourite Magical Ride at Lingfield last Saturday but her 20-1 second from 5lb out of the handicap proper was still a good effort and she can go one better in division one of the 7f Shadwell Racing Excellence Apprentice Handicap at Salisbury (4.50). A 16-race maiden on the all-weather, she ran respectably in mid-division at Newbury in late June on her return to turf, finishing a seven-length ninth of 14 behind Rasheeq over an inadequate 6f trip in a race that is working out well (the runner-up, third , fifth and seventh have all scored at least once since). Back from a short break over her optimum 7f distance at Lingfield last week, the 20-1 shot made the running before being swept aside by impressive 13-8 favourite Magical Ride, who went on to score by nine lengths. She comfortably held second place, taking her record in turf handicaps in July or August to 261641111672 (5-12). That’s an excellent strike-rate for one who plies her trade at a low level and her prominent running style will be an asset in a race where the apprentice jockeys are not allowed to use their whips.
LETHAL TALENT (5.40 Kempton)
So far this year, 20 of the 22 big-field (those featuring ten or more runners) 7f Kempton handicap winners have come from stall six or lower and it should pay to concentrate on those berthed low in the opening Racing TV Nursery Handicap (5.40).Mick Channon’s juvenile handicappers have proved profitable to follow in the past five seasons (14.1% strike-rate, +£19.26) and Now I’m A Believer (stall four of 14) has possibilities but I’m going to pass in favour of Johnny Portman’s LETHAL TALENT (stall six) who has twice caught the eye this summer. The Lethal Force filly ran a solid 20-1 fifth of 14 over 6f at Chelmsford on her all-weather debut in June, doing well to finish so close from a poor wide draw in stall 12. The winner has gone in again since and the form was given another boost when the three-length runner-up was second off a mark of 71 in a Newbury nursery last week. She followed that with a similar effort at Newbury, again keeping on well from off the pace over 6f, suggesting tonight’s extra furlong will bring about improvement.
TODAY’S BEST BETS
Arctic Flower – Salisbury 4.50 (0.5pts each-way, 20-1 generally)
Lethal Talent – Kempton 5.40 (0.5pts wach-way, 6-1 generally, several firms paying four places)
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