Our top tipster has a huge number of stats at his disposal and has highlighted the horses it should pay to follow in Britain today.
EMBOLDEN (2.25 Doncaster)
Richard Fahey has used first-time cheekpieces to good effect in recent years, scoring with 21 of his 123 runners (17.1% strike-rate) since the start of 2015 for a profit of £54.75 to a £1 level stake at SP. In the same period, those who ran second on their most recent outing won eight from 21 when fitted with the headgear next time, a 38.1% strike-rate and profit of £24.75. EMBOLDEN found only one too good in a 7f maiden at Musselburgh last time, keeping on well from off the pace on a track that doesn’t favour a patient style. Doncaster is kinder to hold-up horses and he ran a cracker here on his debut, going down by a length in third at 14-1 behind Stone Circle and Atheeb, now rated 84 and 82 respectively. The fourth from that race is rated 83 and an opening handicap mark of 80 looks workable in the 7f Pepsi Max Nursery (2.25).
DUBAI ACCLAIM (3.35 Doncaster)
Another qualifier on the Richard Fahey/first-time cheekpieces system, DUBAI ACCLAIM is worth a small interest in the Mondialiste Leger Legends Classified Stakes (3.35) despite a slight reservation about the forecast fast going.
MAKAWEE (4.10 Doncaster)
Doncaster’s four-runner 1m4f British EBF Premier Fillies’ Handicap (4.10) looks very playable, as forecast 5-4 favourite Litigious could prove vulnerable. She has yet to race on ground quicker than good to soft (the meeting is due to open on officially ‘good to firm’ going) and she has often failed to settle in her races, including when a nine-length third at Salisbury last time. Second favourite Asoof looks the pace angle but it’s hard to make the running on the round course here, even in small fields. Take the pair on with MAKAWEE, who will be happier back at this trip after three defeats over two miles at York. Like many fillies, David O’Meara’s four-year-old seems best in the spring and autumn, recording form figures of 61211 (3-5) in May or September, with the first defeat on her racecourse debut when in need of the experience and the other by just a neck.
CECE CEYLON (6.00 Kempton)
Ralph Beckett does well with all-weather handicappers in first-time blinkers and his last runner under these conditions – Hermosura at Kempton on August 28th – won at 7-1, taking his record to nine winners from 35 runners (25.7% strike-rate) for a profit of £30.90 to a £1 level stake at SP. In Class 6 company only, his record with his first-time blinkered all-weather handicappers is five winners from ten runners for a profit of £34.00. CECE CEYLON, whose price varies markedly in the evening markets, can be backed in the 7f Wise Betting At racingtv.com Nursery Handicap at Kempton (6.00). Well drawn in stall six of 14 (39 of the 43 course and distance handicaps run this year have been drawn in stall six or lower), her opening mark of 62 looks exploitable based on her debut fourth at Sandown, as the three that finished in front of her have been rated as high as 82, 72 and 83.
TODAY’S BEST BETS
Embolden – 2.25 Doncaster (1.5pts win, 13-2 Betfair, Paddy Power, betVictor)
Dubai Acclaim – 3.35 Doncaster (1pt win, 7-1 generally)
Makawee – 4.10 Doncaster (2pts win, 5-1 generally)
Cece Ceylon – 6.00 Kempton (1pt win, 16-1 bet365)