Top tipster Andrew Mount gives five tips for the excellent racing on offer on Saturday, including a reversed forecast for the Badger Beer Handicap at Wincanton.
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Posted: 4.41pm November 10th (Odds correct at time of writing)
1.15 Wincanton – FLAGRANT DELITIEP (1pt win – 11/2 Bet365, 5/1 generally)
I wrote the following about FLAGRANT DELITIEP in my GG Eyecatchers column after his reappearance run on October 23rd…
‘FLAGRANT DELTIEP looked in need of his reappearance outing but ran well for a long way in the Nick Embiricos Memorial Handicap Chase at Plumpton on Monday, racing close-up before fading into a seven-length fourth of seven. Robert Walford’s eight-year-old could benefit from the switch to a right-handed track next time – his top seven RPRs (Racing Post Ratings) have been achieved when racing clockwise and his record on left-handed or figure-of-eight tracks now reads 5256PP46 (0-8).’
He has yet to win before mid-December but went close at Wincanton on his second outing (November 19th) in the 2020/21 season and is worth an interest now that his yard is back among the winners.
1.40 Kelso – NED TANNER (2pt win – 9/2 generally)
NED TANNER was weak in the betting ahead of his reappearance in the Bet In Play On Rhino.Bet Handicap Chase at Carlisle on October 19th and ran as though the outing were needed, briefly challenging three out before weakening into fifth place. He won at the second time of asking last term and, since his hurdles debut, his record following a defeat reads 311115 (4-6). The return to Kelso is an obvious bonus as his record here outside of his seasonal debut reads 1141 (3-4), with the defeat excusable as he was unable to recover from a very bad mistake on his chase debut.
2.25 Wincanton – THREEUNDERTHRUFIVE (1.5pt win – 7/2 generally), CERTAINLY RED (1pt win – 10/1 Bet365, 9/1 generally) + THREEUNDERTHRUFIVE/CERTAINLY RED (0.25pt reversed forecast)
The Paul Nicholls-trained THREEUNDERTHRFIVE jumped noticeably out to his right when a creditable 14-1 sixth to L’Homme Presse in the Grade 1 Brown Advisory at the 2022 Cheltenham festival and, given his form figures on right-handed tracks of 1111 (4-4), it’s surprising that he hasn’t been asked to race in a clockwise direction since his 15-length romp at Exeter in November 2021. Previously, I’ve suggested that the eight-year-old could develop into a genuine King George contender and I’m anticipating a big run when he contests the 62nd Badger Beer Handicap Chase off a mark of 147.
I also want to support course expert CERTAINLY RED, whose record here reads 1211 (3-4), with the defeat on unfavourable terms in novice chase company. He ran off level weights with ten-length winner Danny Kirwan that day but would have been getting 15lb were it a handicap (he still managed to beat Jay Bee Why, rated 19lb his inferior, into third place).
2.45 Aintree – BORN BY THE SEA (1pt win – 15/2 William Hill, 7/1 generally)
There are some strong statistical pointers associated with the past ten renewals of Grand Sefton Handicap Chase. Those who finished in the top three last time out have a terrible record, scoring just once from 61 runner. Nine of the winners had raced within the past six weeks and eight winners were aged eight or nine. BORN BY THE SEA, a nine-year-old who finished fifth in his prep race 39 days ago, is the only qualifier on all these trends and last year’s Grand National sixth can put his course experience to good use.
Andrew Mount’s Eyecatchers – Tuesday, 7th November
GG tipster Andrew Mount reveals his top 10 eyecatchers from the past week’s action, including three to take out of one race at Ayr from the weekend. There’s plenty more excellent racing to look forward to this week – why not take advantage of BetMGM’s fantastic new customer offer? Sign up here, place a £10…
Tue 07 Nov 2023Andrew Mount’s Best Bets
1.15 Wincanton – FLAGRANT DELITIEP (1pt win – 11/2 Bet365, 5/1 generally)
1.40 Kelso – NED TANNER (2pt win – 9/2 generally)
2.25 Wincanton – THREEUNDERTHRUFIVE (1.5pt win – 7/2 generally), CERTAINLY RED (1pt win – 10/1 Bet365, 9/1 generally) + THREEUNDERTHRUFIVE/CERTAINLY RED (0.25pt reversed forecast)
2.45 Aintree – BORN BY THE SEA (1pt win – 15/2 William Hill, 7/1 generally)
Ned Tanner
Andrew Mount’s tip for Saturday 11th November 2023.
Check out this weeks Weekend Watch, where Andrew Mount, Dave Young and Kate Tracey guide us through their picks for all 10 ITV races on Saturday:
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