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Andrew Mount’s Best Bets – Sunday, 19th November

Expert tipster Andrew Mount gives three selections for Sunday’s racing, including two to side with in the lucky last on the Cheltenham’s November Meeting card.

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Posted: 5.45pm November 18th (Odds correct at time of writing)

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2.04 Fontwell – MAX DYNAMO (1pt win – 10/1 Bet365, 17/2 generally)

MAX DYNAMO has a good record when fresh since joining current trainer Emma-Jane Bishop and returned from a 288-day break to romp home by 25 lengths at odds of 14-1 at Chepstow last February when tipped in this column. He also won on his reappearance in 2021/22 after a break of 241 days and though well into the veteran stage he’s worth a punt in the Southern National.

14:04 BetGoodwin Southern National Handicap Chase

4.00 Cheltenham – MOON CHIME (1.5pt win – 13/2 generally) + BOY FROM BRAZIL (0.5pt win – 50/1 generally)

It’s not easy to win from off the pace on the hurdles/bumper course at Stratford and horses that pull off that trick can be followed closely. Since the beginning of last year, 88 horses have won under patient tactics over hurdles or in national hunt flat races at Stratford and 31 followed up (35.2% strike-rate) for a profit of £83.88 to the usual £1 stake. The expected number of winners based on their odds was only 19.13 giving an A/E (actual over expected) score of 1.62. MOON CHIME, a winner at Worcester back in May, maintained his 100% record when coming from the rear to score by seven lengths at Stratford on October 9th when the runner-up (‘prominent, led 4f out’), third (‘led narrowly, pressed leader when headed 4f out’) and fourth (‘prominent’) were up with the pace throughout. The five-year-old clocked a good speed figure in the process (he’s top on last-time out speed with Proform) and deep ground is unlikely to trouble him on breeding – his dam was a heavy-ground winner and his sire, Pether’s Moon, is 11 from 65 (17%) with his progeny on officially soft or heavy going against an expected score of only 6.92 (A/E = 1.59). I’ve saved on outsider BOY FROM BRAZIL – he was only fifth in the same Stratford race as Moon Chime but was also given a patient ride and seemed ill at ease on the track. He started as the 11-4 favourite that day (against Moon Chime’s 5-1) and is surely better than he showed that day.

16:00 Turners Open National Hunt Flat Race (Listed Race) (GBB Race)

Andrew Mount’s Best Bets

2.04 Fontwell – MAX DYNAMO (1pt win – 10/1 Bet365, 17/2 generally)

4.00 Cheltenham – MOON CHIME (1.5pt win – 13/2 generally) + BOY FROM BRAZIL (0.5pt win – 50/1 generally)

Time
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Andrew Mount’s tip for Sunday 19th November 2023.



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