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Andrew Mount’s Best Bets – Thursday, 17th August

Andrew Mounts Tips

Top tipster Andrew Mount gives a trio of selections for Thursday’s racing, including two he’s keen on at Beverley.

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Posted: 8.25pm August 16th (Odds correct at time of writing)

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3.00 Beverley – SEAHORSE SYD (1pt E/W – 20/1 Bet365, 12/1 generally)

We hit the crossbar with Umberto (11-4f from 6-1) at Kempton last night (beaten by half a length into third) and my reasoning for having a bet on the Ollie Pears-trained SEAHORSE SYD is similarly stats-based. The two-year-old has finished 10th of 14, 8th of 13 and 11th of 12 in his three runs to date but the case for a bet is stronger than those form figures suggest…

  1. The son of Kodiac showed some ability on his debut, running green and finishing just over seven lengths behind the winner when a 28-1 tenth of 14 in a hot 5f novice contest at Redcar. He wasn’t best drawn in stall 9 (none-runner adjusted) that day and the other high-drawn runners have certainly advertised the form – Big Evs, runner-up from stall 12, won the Windsor Castle Stakes by three lengths at 20-1 next time before landing the Group 3 Molecomb Stakes at Glorious Goodwood, fourth-placed Seven Questions (stall 13) has recorded form figures of 2111 (3-4) in his subsequent starts (defeat by a neck), with the latest win in nursery company off a handicap mark of 88, and even 15th-home Zaphea (stall 14) has placed three times since Redcar, most recently when runner-up in a nursery off 55.
  2. He wears blinkers for the first time today and his sire’s progeny are 26 from 184 in Flat turf races (14.1%) when fitted with this headgear for a profit of £52.90 to a £1 level stake at SP (expected winners = 14.79, A/E = 1.76).
  3. He’s been gelded since his last run and Kodiacs are 52 from 363 (14.3%) on their first start following a gelding operation for a huge profit of £204.58 to a £1 level stake at SP.
  4. His trainer has been in good form, with three winners already this month and his latest nursery debutant at Beverley won at 11-2.
Happy Retirement Ann Dunn Nursery Handicap

3.30 Beverley – SHERDIL (1pt E/W – 14/1 Bet365, 9/1 generally)

The Paul Midgley yard was quiet when I put up SHERDIL as a bet at Carlisle on July 13th but they are in much better shape now and I was happy to forgive the four-year-old his 22-1 ninth of ten to Impeller as his patient running style was at a huge disadvantage. Yorkstone, the patiently-ridden 100-30 favourite that day, won at Doncaster on his next start and eighth-placed Glorious Rio, another who came from off the pace, has also franked the form, finishing fourth and second (by a short head) in his two subsequent runs. Sherdil beat only one home at Beverley on his next start but wasn’t beaten by far on ground that was too soft for him. He was a big eyecatcher against the draw bias at Pontefract on July 3rd when last encountering fast conditions and should go close if they haven’t overdone the watering.

Robin And Wendy Adams 40th Anniversary Handicap

7.42 Ayr – ABDUCTION (1pt win – 9/1 Bet365 + 888Sport, 8/1 generally)

ABDUCTION has a few entries in my tracker, all with the comment ‘no chance against the pace bias’. That was certainly the case at Musselburgh on June 3rd when Jim Goldie’s five-year-old fared best of those ridden patiently. He finished second best of the closers at Pontefract/Haydock the next twice before running a stinker over 6f at Ayr. He wasn’t disgraced in the 6f Class 2 handicap fought out by Aberama Gold/Manla Scouse at York on his latest start, a race that has received several boosts, and he’s two from two when running over 7f at Ayr.

Tennent’s Lager Handicap

Andrew Mount’s Best Bets

3.00 Beverley – SEAHORSE SYD (1pt E/W – 20/1 Bet365, 12/1 generally)

3.30 Beverley – SHERDIL (1pt E/W – 14/1 Bet365, 9/1 generally)

7.42 Ayr – ABDUCTION (1pt win – 9/1 Bet365 + 888Sport, 8/1 generally)

Time
Race
Our tip
Place bet
Seahorse Syd Seahorse Syd
Result
4th 16/1
Sherdil Sherdil
Result
5th 14/1
Abduction Abduction
Result
1st 12/1

Andrew Mount’s tips for Thursday 17th August 2023.


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