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Andrew Mount’s Best Bets – Wednesday, 27th December

Chief tipster Andrew Mount gives five tips for the action on Wednesday, including two to side with in the Welsh Grand National.

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Posted: 5pm December 26th (Odds correct at time of writing)

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2.10 Chepstow – AUTHOCELTIC (0.5pt E/W – 33/1 generally)

Jane Williams rarely wastes ammunition when it comes to Graded races and she does especially well when stepping one up in class on its second start. The highly-regarded AUTHOCELTIC attracted plenty of market interest at Exeter on his debut last month but needed the experience and couldn’t go with the principals when the pace quickened. The son of Authorized will know a lot more today and looks worth a small each-way play, even though they are only two places to play for in this six-runner line-up.

Coral Finale Juvenile Hurdle (Grade 2) (GBB Race)

2.50 Chepstow – SUPER SURVIVOR (1.5pt win – 5/1 generally) + WAYFINDER (0.5pt win – 25/1 generally)

Most recent Welsh Grand National winners carried 10st 10lb or less, ran within the past six weeks and finished in the top four in their prep race. Combining these angles in the past ten years would have found seven winners from 49 bets for a profit of £36.00 to a £1 level stake at SP. Last year, 16-1 winner The Two Amigos was one of only two qualifiers. Jamie Snowden’s SUPER SURVIVOR ran second to stablemate Git Maker at Lingfield on his comeback last month and filled the same position on his reappearance last term before landing the 2m7.5f novices’ handicap chase at the Welsh National meeting, after which his trainer nominated today’s race as a long-term target. His course form will be an asset and we’ve already seen his trainer land a big one in the shape of the Coral Gold Cup Handicap Chase this season.

WAYFINDER is another qualifier on the Welsh National system mentioned above. He was a bet for this column when a 33-1 third of 13 over 3m1f at Cheltenham on his reappearance and first start following wind surgery. He fell early when returned to Cheltenham next time but bounced back with a solid second to Nassalam in the Welsh National Trial over 2m7.5f here on December 9th. He found the trip too sharp that day and I can see him reversing form with the Nassalam (about one-quarter his price) as that one tends to regress once he’s had a couple of runs. The form of the Rebacca Curtis yard is of some concern but there’s compensation in the price and he’s worth a small saver.

Coral Welsh Grand National Handicap Chase (Premier Handicap) (Run In Memory Of Kim Gingell) (GBB)

3.25 Chepstow – WITNESS PROTECTION (1pt win – 12/1 Bet365, 10/1 generally) + NOT AVAILABLE (1pt win – 16/1 Bet365, 8/1 generally)

Front-runners have a fantastic record over fences at Chepstow and WITNESS PROTECTION made all to score by a neck from the useful Red Rookie over course and distance on his latest visit to the Welsh venue in November 2021. Martin Keighley’s ten-year-old won in January 2021 on his only other course and distance outing and though yet to win in four starts this year after returning from a break of 437 days, he looked to retain at least a good chunk of his ability when beaten by less than ten lengths over 2m7.5f at Newbury in March. Today, he cuts back to 2m for the first time since that course and distance win in November 2021, is 2lb higher and is worth a small interest in the hope that he can dominate proceedings.

NOT AVAILABLE has been described by Matt Shappard as a ‘slow two-mile chaser’ and it’s interesting to note that he tends to win over tracks with difficult fences, taking advantage of his rivals’ jumping frailties. His four runs over course and distance have returned form figures of 3311 (2-4) and today’s small field will suit. He’s hardly set the world alight in three runs this term but often comes good at around this time of year, winning at Ludlow on 22nd December 2021 and running third at 18-1 at Newbury on New Year’s Eve 2022 before scoring at Wincanton a week later.

New Bet-In-race With Coral Handicap Chase

Andrew Mount’s Best Bets

2.10 Chepstow – AUTHOCELTIC (0.5pt E/W – 33/1 generally)

2.50 Chepstow – SUPER SURVIVOR (1.5pt win – 5/1 generally) + WAYFINDER (0.5pt win – 25/1 generally)

3.25 Chepstow – WITNESS PROTECTION (1pt win – 12/1 Bet365, 10/1 generally) + NOT AVAILABLE (1pt win – 16/1 Bet365, 8/1 generally)

Time
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Andrew Mount’s tip for Wednesday 27th December 2023.


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