With Jonbon’s Clarence House victory fresh in the memory it could be a good time to take a detailed look at the Queen Mother Champion Chase, the feature race on day two of the Cheltenham Festival.
Stats and Trends
Running Style
Three of the past ten winners made all (backing all 12 front-runners would have returned a profit of £16.50 to a £1 level stake at SP), five winners (from 31 runners) raced prominently (-£6.44) while only two winners (from 38 runners) were ridden patiently (-£32.50). Proform’s software ranks allocates each runner a pace ranking based on the aggregate of their last three starts and those who were ranked first (or equal first) were five from 17 for a profit of £17.20.
Previous Cheltenham Festival Form
Nine of the past ten winners had raced at the Cheltenham festival before. Backing all 68 qualifiers would have returned a loss of £12.94 to a £1 level stake at SP, though that loss becomes a profit of £23.68 (after 2% commission) at Betfair SP. Those who had won or placed at any previous Cheltenham festival were eight from 50 for a loss of £0.44 to a £1 level stake at SP (+£35.10 at Betfair SP after commission).
Age
All ten winners were aged between seven and ten, though very few runners were outside of this range (six-year-olds were 0-1 and those aged 11+ were 0-6).
Prep Race
Eight of the ten winners prepped in a Grade 1 and backing all 78 qualifiers returned a profit of £10.56 at SP (+£46.18 at BSP after comm). Those who ran below that level were just two from 41 for a loss of £33.00. Laying them at BSP would have returned a profit of £31.18 after comm (+76.06% on turnover).
The Main Contenders
JONBON (FR)
9yo b g (Nicky Henderson)
Jonbon’s comfortable Clarence House victory last weekend took his career record under rules to 11112111121111211111 (17-20). He understandably heads the antepost market at around the 11-8 mark (2.56 on the Betfair exchange at the time of writing) but it’s worth remembering that those three runner-up efforts came at Cheltenham and he’s 0-2 at the festival.
GAELIC WARRIOR (GER)
7yo b g (W P Mullins)
Gaelic Warrior has often jumped out to his right on left-handed tracks but was much straighter at his obstacles when landing the Arkle over course and distance at last season’s festival. Getting a lead, rather than making the running, was put forward in some quarters as the reason for his improved fencing. He has tasted defeat in both subsequent outings – at right-handed Punchestown (1-3f) and left-handed Leopardstown (13-8f) – but lack of peak fitness was blamed for his reappearance reverse and he should be spot on for Cheltenham. Arkle winners have a fine record in the following year’s Champion Chase and the form has certainly been well advertised with runner-up Found A Fifty landing his next three starts, third-placed Il Etait Temps going two from two in Grade 1 company since Cheltenham and 19-length fourth Matata scoring twice since. JPR One and Quilixios, the last two runners to finish, have both won since.
ENERGUMENE (FR)
11yo br g (W P Mullins)
Like stablemate Gaelic Warrior, Energumene has displayed a tendency to jump out to his right, though that didn’t prevent him from slamming Captain Guinness by ten lengths in this race in 2023 (he also won it in 2022). He was firmly put in his place by Jonbon in the Clarence House and may have to settle for a place at best.
IL EST FRANCAIS (FR)
7yo b g (Noel George & Amanda Zetterholm)
The King George runner-up looks a fascinating contender down in trip and it would be no great surprise to see him do a One Man, who landed this race in 1998 having won multiple races over 3m+. His front-running style will be an asset, but he’s also entered in the Ryanair and the Gold Cup, so if you do fancy him, make sure you bet with a firm offering the non-runner no bet concession.
EL FABIOLO (FR)
8yo b g (W P Mullins)
El Fabiolo was sent off as the 2-9 favourite for this race last year after a shuddering error at the fifth fence. Aside from that run, his record for his current handler when not wearing headgear reads 111111112 (8-9), with the defeat by Jonbon in the Celebration Chase at Sandown last April. He’s yet to run this season.
MARINE NATIONALE (IRE)
8yo b g (Barry Connell)
Marine Nationale, so impressive in landing the 2023 Supreme Novices’ Hurdle, was a comfortable winner at Leopardstown on his chase/seasonal debut in 2023/24 but is 0-3 over fences in Graded company subsequently. Last month’s four and a half length third to Solness at Leopardstown was a step in the right direction but he’ll need to show more at the Dublin Racing Festival next month before making my shortlist for Cheltenham.
SOLNESS (FR)
7yo b g (Jospeh O’Brien)
Solness caused a 28-1 upset when making all to deny Gaelic Warrior in Grade 1 company at Leopardstown over Christmas, though his sole visit to Cheltenham wasn’t a happy one (he finished 42 lengths behind the winner when 11th of 16 in last season’s Grand Annual). His only other trip to these shores produced a 25-length fourth of six to Jonbon at Sandown and he’s passed over despite having the desired running style.
CAPTAIN GUINNESS (IRE)
10yo b g (Henry De Bromhead)
Captain Guinness took advantage of El Fabiolo’s blunder to win this at odds of 17-2 last year and has run well at three other Cheltenham festivals – he was still travelling well when brought down two out in Shihskin’s Supreme Novices’ Hurdle, ran third to the same rival in the 2021 Arkle and found only Energumene too good in this race in 2023. He’s shown little in two runs this term but will be a possible each-way play on the day given his course form.
LIBBERTY HUNTER
9yo b g (Evan Williams)
Libberty Hunter’s record on ground judged to be good to soft or softer by Proform reads 111F1123 (5-8), with the latest defeat at 33-1 in the Grade 1 Maghull Novices’ Chase at Aintree last spring. The ground was faster than ideal when he landed a Class 2 handicap chase at Cheltenham in December and a placed effort could be on the cards if the ground was in his favour.
GENTLEMAN DE MEE (FR)
9yo b g (W P Mullins)
Gentleman De Mee could only finish a 36-length seventh of nine to Solness at Leopardstown over Christmas, but he tends to come alive in the second half of the season, recording form figures of 1071111442U (5-11) in the February to April period. He finished second to Captain Guinness in this race 12 months ago and, like that rival, he could be an each-way player at a big price on the day.
Summary
Jonbon, beaten in both previous Cheltenham festival outings, could be vulnerable again and I prefer the claims of GAELIC WARRIOR, so impressive in last season’s Arkle. There’s not much juice in the best ante-post offer of 7-2, though if he wins at the DRF and Il Est Francais diverts to the Ryanair Chase then he could end up much shorter. Il Est Francais is another to consider and Libberty Hunter has possibilities, though he probably won’t run unless it’s very soft. Spring horses Captain Guinness and Gentleman De Mee could place at big odds. The former is a fair price at 33-1 given his festival form, though he’s only 20-1 with the firms offering NRNB.
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