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Cheltenham Festival

Andrew Mount’s Cheltenham Focus – How to Find the Winner of the Ryanair Chase

This week’s column takes a detailed look at the Ryanair Chase…

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Age

All winners were aged between seven and nine…

…with seven-year-olds (five winners from 23 bets) showing a profit of £14.50 to a £1 level stake at SP.

Running Style

Pace plays a huge role in chases run on Cheltenham’s New Course, with front-runners strongly favoured in races open to professional jockeys (amateurs often go off too hard in races like the Foxhunters and Kim Muir, setting it up for a closer). The table below shows the running styles of the last ten Ryanair winners (H = held up, L = led, P = prominent)…

…front-runners took four of the last ten renewals for a profit of £18.07 to a £1 level stake at SP, prominent racers weighed in with four victories (from 38 runners) for a loss of £15.25, while hold-up horses were just two from 53 (-£42.00). Predicting the front-runner isn’t always as simple as glancing at a pace map but in the past ten years last time out run style has been a good guide…

…with horses who led last time out recording six victories (from 22 runners) for a profit of £24.57. This angle has found six of the last eight winners (last year’s 17-2 scorer Protektorat was the sole qualifier) and one of the blank years (2023) produced 22-1 third Hitman from one qualifier.

SP Favourites

The market leader was four from ten for a tiny profit at SP (+£0.32) and banking on the jolly in the Placepot would have seen us safely through to the next leg in nine of the last ten years…

Prep race

Five winners prepped in Grade 1 company, though showed a loss of £28.75 at SP. The other five ran in a Grade 2 in their final start before Cheltenham and returned a profit of £4.57…

Distance Last Time Out

Four winners were cutting back in trip from 3m or further, three had prepped over 2m3f-2m6f, while three were stepping up in distance from 2m-2m1f…

Country Of Breeding

The last ten winners were all French breds…

…though this angle has thrown up as many as eight qualifiers in a single year.

Sire Country Of Breeding

Progeny of French sires have a fine recent record…

…landing seven of the past ten renewals (from 25 runners) for a profit of £9.32.

System

Backing those aged seven to nine, who prepped in Grade 1 or Grade 2 company and who were by a French sire would have found seven winners from 14 bets for a profit of £20.32. Full list below…

Of those 14 qualifiers, seven made the running in their prep race and five of them won at Cheltenham for a profit of £22.57…

The entries with a French sire are Protektorat, Energumene, Djelo, Heart Wood, Blue Lord, Fil Dor, Blood Destiny, Gentleman De Mee, Il Ridoto and Le Patron. French breds with a British or Irish sire include Fact To File, Il Est Francais, El Fabiolo and Envoi Allen.

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The Main Contenders

Fact To File, runner-up in the 2023 Champion Bumper, went one better at last year’s festival when readily landing odds of 8-13 in the Brown Advisory Novices’ Chase over the 3m trip, despite jumping out to his right on occasions. He followed up in the John Durkan at Punchestown 256 days later, his first and only run on a right-handed track. Willie Mullins’ eight-year-old had no answer to stablemate Galopin Des Champs in the Savills Chase at Leopardstown over Christmas, again jumping out to his right on the left-handed track, and I’m happy to oppose him whether he runs here or in the Cheltenham Gold Cup.

Spillane’s Tower was only half a length behind Fact To File when 18-1 for the John Durkan on his reappearance and didn’t enjoy the good ground when fifth to Banbridge in the King George. His full record over 2m3f or further on good to soft or softer going (based on race times not the official verdict) reads 11112 (4-5) and he should go well granted suitable underfoot conditions.

Front-runner Il Est Francais couldn’t repel Banbridge in the King George but had ten lengths to spare over third-placed L’Homme Presse (winner since) and he has a chase record of 111 (3-3) when running over a trip of 2m6 for shorter. He is the most likely front-runner if running in this race instead of the Gold Cup and could prove hard to pass.

Banbridge is ground dependent and has landed seven of his ten starts on going classed as good or faster by Proform…

…he can’t be recommended antepost for this reason.

Ten-year-old Protektorat would be older than the last ten winners, but he won this race 12 months ago and it’s worth remembering that Albertas Run, successful as a nine-year-old in 2010, returned the following season to double up. Our Vic (2008) and Fondmort (2006) also won this as ten-year-olds. He hacked up from Djelo at Windsor in mid-January to take his chase record over 2m3f-2m6f on left-handed tracks to 11221361 (4-8) and he’d hold solid claims on his preferred soft or heavy surface.

Summary

Fact To File looks vulnerable at the head of the market, while Banbridge is reliant on good ground and cannot be recommended at this stage. IL EST FRANCAIS’s forcing style makes him of obvious interest now back in trip and he’s preferred to last year’s winner Protektorat – a major player if it came up soft or heavy – and Spillane’s Tower (needs good to soft or softer).

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