Having looked at a handicap in my latest Cheltenham column, I’m keeping it simple this week and turning my attention to the Paddy Power Stayers’ Hurdle. I can make an educated guess as to who is likely to turn up for this three-mile Grade 1 contest and by using stats/trends and horse profiling I’m hoping to come up with a manageable shortlist and maybe even an ante-post recommendation.
Stats and Trends
Age
Six and seven-year-olds have won eight of the past ten renewals (from 55 runners) and backing them blind would have returned a profit of £57.63 to a £1 level stake at SP (expected winners = 4.22, A/E = 1.90). The blank years (2023 and 2016) produced placed horses, and this is a useful angle for negotiating what can be a tricky leg of the Placepot. In 2020, the six qualifiers included the 50-1 winner, 20-1 runner-up and 10-1 fourth.
Previous Cheltenham Festival Form
Eight of the last ten winners had run at a previous Cheltenham festival and backing all 106 qualifiers would have returned a profit of £27.63 to a £1 level stake at SP.
Days Since Last Run
Nine of the last ten winners had been rested for more than six weeks and backing the 99 qualifiers would have returned a profit of £15.63. Those were returned to the track sooner were just one from 36.
Race Type Last Time Out
Fourteen runs prepped over fences and were beaten, though both Flooring Porter (9-1 last year) and Ronald Pump (20-1 in 2020) finished second.
Finishing Position Last Time Out
Four of the last ten winners were successful in their prep race (-£13.38 to a £1 level stake at SP), five winners had finished second, third or fourth, while one (Nicholls Canyon in 2017) had fallen.
System
Backing six or seven-year-olds, who prepped in a hurdle race over six weeks ago would have found eight winners from 36 bets for a profit of £76.63. Those who had raced at a previous Cheltenham festival were seven from 25 (no qualifiers in 2021) for a profit of £74.63. In 2020, the only qualifier on this angle was Lisnagar Oscar who won at 50-1.
The Main Contenders
TEAHUPOO (FR)
8yo b g (Gordon Elliott)
The son of Masked Marvel won this race last year when encountering his preferred soft/heavy going and has been in good form since, following up at Punchestown despite underfoot conditions being faster than ideal and chasing home Lossiemouth over an inadequate 2m4f in the Hatton’s Grace at Fairyhouse on his reappearance. He’s won eight times from eight starts on ground that Proform rated as soft or heavy but is just two from eight on anything quicker…
…he doesn’t fit the age profile of recent winners but is likely to prove hard to beat if getting his ground.
HOME BY THE LEE
10yo b g (Joseph Patrick O’Brien)
HOME BY THE LEE was my pick for this race two years when beaten by just under four lengths into fifth behind Sire Du Berlais. He looked a shade unlucky not to place at least that day, as he made a bad mistake at the sixth, losing a good position as a result before staying on again at the business end. Third at 16-1 behind Teahupoo in last season’s renewal, he’s two from two so far this season and looks better than ever. He’s another who doesn’t fit the age profile of recent winners but holds each-way claims.
CRAMBO
8yo b g (Fergal O’Brien)
Crambo, winner of the Long Walk Hurdle last season, doubled up in the same race on last month’s return to action. He reportedly “ran flat” when a 7-1 ninth of 12 in this race last year and it’s possible that Cheltenham simply isn’t his track.
Andrew Mount’s Cheltenham Festival Focus – Early Outline of the Ultima Handicap Chase
Much of the build-up to the Cheltenham festival (only a couple of months away) will focus on the Grade 1 races and the Irish bankers but one of the most reliable races for making money in recent years has been the Ultima Handicap Chase, the third race on day one and the first handicap of…
Tue 07 Jan 2025LUCKY PLACE (FR)
6yo b g (Nicky Henderson)
The consistent Lucky Place took his career record to 22122411 (3-8), with the fourth place coming when 25-1 for last season’s Coral Cup. All those runs took place over 2m-2m5f but he shapes as though the step up to 3m will suit and the six-year-old looks a genuine contender.
THE WALLPARK (IRE)
7yo b g (Gordon Elliott)
Progressive in handicap company in the second half of last year, Gordon Elliott’s six-year-old very much caught the eye in the Grade 1 Long Walk Hurdle last month, doing best of those to come from the rear and finishing only three and a half lengths behind the winner. The likely bigger field at Cheltenham will suit – his record in fields of 12 or more runners for his current yard reads 1109111 (5-7) – and he remains open to further improvement after just two runs over the 3m trip.
LANGER DAN (IRE)
9yo b g (Dan Skelton)
Dan Skelton’s nine-year-old was beaten by 28 lengths when last of six behind Lucky Place in the Relkeel Hurdle at Cheltenham on New Year’s Day but has always been best in the spring. Whether that’s because his trainer was plotting him up for a Cheltenham festival or he genuinely needs the sun on his back is up for debate but form figures in March/April since he underwent wind surgery of 12B1113 (4-7), with the third place by a nose and a short head when 18-1 for the Grade 1 Aintree Hurdle last term. He still needs to prove his stamina for this 3m trip but he’s another each-way contender.
BUDDY ONE (IRE)
8yo b g (Paul John Gilligan)
BUDDY ONE landed odds of 2-7 on his chase debut at Galway in October but has beaten only one rival in his three subsequent outings over fences. He was my each-way selection when a 40-1 fourth of 12 in this race last year and I’m expecting him to revert to hurdles for his next start. He also ran well at this meeting in 2023 – finishing a 28-1 third in the Martin Pipe conditional jockeys’ handicap hurdle (2m4.5f on the New Course) – and his full record over hurdles when running in Britain reads 32142 (1-5). He too doesn’t fit the age profile of recent winners, but he looks an each-way player at a big price.
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Summary
Last year’s winner Teahupoo is by far the most obvious one and he’s likely to prove hard to beat on genuinely soft or heavy going, despite being older than the majority of recent winners. However, he could be vulnerable on anything quicker and doesn’t appeal as an antepost play. The four who interest me at bigger prices are LUCKY PLACE (14-1), The Wallpark (25-1), Langer Dan (25-1) and Buddy One (50-1). Betting each-way at ante-post priced offers little value as we don’t know the ground conditions and the bookies are only paying three places, whereas there will no doubt be extra places available on the day. This makes it difficult to get involved at this stage, though if you want an interest I’d consider backing LUCKY PLACE, as he’s likely to be aimed at the Cleeve Hurdle on Trials Day and a win there could see him half in price for the festival.
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