Andrew Mount’s Cheltenham Festival Focus – Early Outline of the Ultima Handicap Chase

Much of the build-up to the Cheltenham festival (only a couple of months away) will focus on the Grade 1 races and the Irish bankers but one of the most reliable races for making money in recent years has been the Ultima Handicap Chase, the third race on day one and the first handicap of the meeting.

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The market has been incredibly helpful in identifying the winner of this 3m contest and, since 2014, simply backing all those runners who returned at a Starting Price (SP) of 11-1 or shorter would have found ten of the 11 winners (from 64 bets) and made a profit of £28.50 to a £1 level stake at SP. This angle drew a blank in 2021, but it helped to identify the runner-up, third, fifth and six and backing all the qualifiers each-way with those bookies offering extra places would have reduced the damage. To reduce the number of bets it might be worth eliminating those aged ten or older from consideration. There were seven qualifiers in the study period and all of them were unplaced…

Alfie Sherrin 8^th 7-1 (2014)

Time For Rupert 18^th 10-1 (2014)

The Druids Nephew 7^th 10-1 (2017)

Holywell PU 10-1 (2017)

Up For Review 8^th 8-1 (2019)

Death Duty 6^th 17-2 (2022)

Frodon 12^th 11-1 (2022)

…siding only with those aged nine or older who started as favourite in their prep race would have found six winners from 20 bets for a profit of £35.50 to a £1 level stake at SP with ten of the 14 beaten horses finishing second, third, fourth or fifth.

Another angle is to ignore the Irish contingent. The 14 qualifiers in the study period were all beaten, though several made the frame…

Gallant Oscar 3^rd 9-1 (2015)

Morning Assembly 4^th 10-1 (2016)

Noble Endeavour 3^rd 15-2 (2017)

Up For Review 8^th 8-1 (2019)

Discorama 3^rd 11-2 (2020)

Discordantly 6^th 10-1 (2021)

Milan Native 9^th 13-2 (2021)

Death Duty 6^th 17-2 (2022)

Floueur 10^th 15-2 (2022)

Fastorslow 2^nd 7-1 (2023)

The Goffer 4^th 7-1 (2023)

The Goffer 5^th 9-2 (2024)

Stumptown PU 15-2 (2024)

Meetingofthewaters 3^rd 6-1 (2024)

Headgear is often mentioned when the Ultima is discussed, as ten of the last 11 winners wore either blinkers, cheekpieces a tongue-tie or a combination of them. However, this has become something of a self-fulfilling prophecy as those touting the headgear stats will rarely tell you that most of the field usually wears headgear, including 19 of the 23 runners in 2020. Still, those of you wishing to narrow the field to just a few qualifiers come March might wish to only consider horses priced at 11-1 or shorter, aged nine or younger, trained in Britain, wearing headgear.

The above system suggests that we needn’t re-visit this race until a few minutes before the off time – it’s currently 12-1 the field in bet365’s antepost book – but I want to take a look at some of the more likely candidates for those of you who enjoy having an early involvement, especially now that some firms (e.g. William Hill) are offering non-runner no bet. Profiling these horses may also point us in the direction of a winner or two – or a short price horse to avoid – in the lead-up to Cheltenham…

MASACCIO (IRE)

8yo gr g (Alan King)

Alan King has plenty of ‘previous’ in this race, albeit some time again, winning it with Fork Lightning (7-1) in 2004 and with Bensalem (5-1) in 2011. The last-named was poised to win this race when 6-1 for the 2010 renewal but he fell two out when travelling strongly (it still hurts, as I needed him for a treble!). The Barbury Castle handler has another interesting candidate in the shape of Masaccio. The eight-year-old made a winning reappearance/chase debut at Newbury in early November (2m4f, good) before chasing home The Jukebox Man in Grade 2 company over the same course and distance. He finished much further behind that rival when third in the Grade 1 Kauto Star Novices’ Chase at Kempton on Boxing Day but the right-handed track wouldn’t have been ideal. He still needs to prove his stamina for 3m but runs extremely well when fresh (he has seasonal debut figures of 1311) and it will be interesting to see if he heads straight to the festival or has a prep race. His record when returned to the track within 150 days of his latest outing reads 2272510223 (1-10), with the win at odds of 1-6.

HAITI COULEURS

8yo b g (Rebecca Curtis)

Off the mark in a heavy-ground maiden hurdle at Chepstow last March, he followed up on soft ground at Bangor the following month and has improved with each of his three runs over fences this term. His reappearance two-length second to Destroytheevidence at Chepstow was followed by wins at Aintree and Cheltenham (New Course), latterly in the same race won by Corach Rambler in December 2021 before he landed the Ultima later in the same season (he returned to win it again in 2023). After Haiti Couleurs latest success, trainer Rebecca Curtis suggested that the Grade 1 Brown Advisory could also be an option for her rapidly-improving eight-year-old.

JOHNNYWHO

8yo b g (Jonjo & A J O’Neill)

I fell for Johnnywho in the Albert Bartlett last season where he trailed home 25 lengths behind the winner in eighth of 13 and his subsequent efforts have been somewhat underwhelming. He did land a 2m4f novices’ chase at Carlisle on his comeback – a run that took his record on right-handed tracks to 111 (3-3) – but he’s been beaten at odds of 100-30 and 13-8f since and form figures left-handed of 448433 (0-6) are an obvious concern.

RESPLENDENT GREY

7yo gr g (Olly Murphy)

Olly Murphy’s grey didn’t jump brilliantly when runner-up to Handstands in the Grade 2 Esher Novices’ Chase at Sandown (3m, soft) but that was still a useful effort, and he only went down by half a length over the Ultima course and distance on his penultimate start on ground that was plenty quick enough for him. He’s won both starts in fields of ten or more runners (a Market Rasen bumper and a Wetherby maiden hurdle) and he looks the type to improve for a big field over fences.

VICTTORINO

7yo bb g (Venetia Williams)

Victtorino was a massive eyecatcher in the Coral Gold Cup Handicap Chase, clearly hating the left-handed track but flying at the finish to grab third. He returned to winning ways at Ascot next time but form figures left-handed for his current trainer of 7P3 (0-3), with the non-completion in last year’s Ultima, suggest he’s one to avoid.

KING TURGEON

7yo gr g (David Pipe)

King Turgeon has won three from three since returning from a summer wind operation, wearing a tongue-tie/cheekpieces combination on each occasion. Since the beginning of 2020 backing all progeny of his sire Turgeon over hurdles/fences would have found 60 winners from 337 bets (17.8% strike-rate) for a profit of £86.39 to a £1 level stake at SP and he still looks to be improving. His trainer’s three recent runners in this race top start at 11-1 or shorter produced two wins (11-1 and 9-1) and a second (9-1).

Summary

Positive Trends for the Ultima Handicap Chase

• The market is the best guide, with those priced at 11-1 or shorter showing a good profit.
• British trained
• Aged nine or younger
• Started as favourite in their prep race
• Wore blinkers, cheekpieces or a tongue-tie, though sometimes 80% of the field can fall into this category

Negative trends

• Irish trained
• Aged ten or older

Given the importance of the day-of-race market this is probably not the best contest for antepost punting, though William Hill’s current list is heavy on the Irish-trained runners and siding with a young British-trained runner could offer some value. KING TURGEON, whose trainer has a good record in this race, is the obvious one at this stage. His price ranges from 12-1 to 20-1, with William Hill offering 16-1 which seems a fair price given their non-runner no bet concession.

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