This week’s column takes a detailed look at the Boodles Cheltenham Gold Cup Chase but first I want to look at some general stats/trends and angles for the Festival…
Alan King Hurdlers
Alan King has a shocking recent record with his hurdlers at the Cheltenham festival, scoring with just one of his 135 runners since 2009 for a loss of £101.00 to a £1 level stake at SP. The expected number of winners, based on their odds, was 6.54 giving an average over expected score (A/E) of just 0.15 (anything over 1.0 is good).
Beaten Favourites Last Time Out
One stat that has been doing the rounds recently is the record of beaten favourites who line up at the Cheltenham festival. Since 2014, the score is 30 from 613 (4.89% strike-rate) for a loss of £337.43 to a £1 level stake at SP (expected winners = 39.15, A/E = 0.77). Throw out the chase qualifiers and the score is just seven from 332 (2.11%) for a loss of £253.63 to a £1 level stake at SP (expected winners = 17.53, A/E = 0.40).
Champion Bumper, Recent Run
This century, backing runners in the Champion Bumper who had raced within the past 28 days would have found just one winner from 106 bets for a loss of £94.00 to a £1 level stake at SP (expected winners = 3.80, A/E = 0.26). Last year’s three qualifiers included 7-1 shot Bill Joyce who finished 15th.
Coral Cup, Higher Weights
Since 2004, backing those ranked in the top six in the weights in the Coral Cup would have found 12 winners from 142 bets for a profit of £97.00 to a £1 level stake at SP (expected winners = 6.52, A/E = 1.84).
County Hurdle, Willie Mullins and Dan Skelton
Since 2011, simply backing every runner trained by Willie Mullins and Dan Skelton in the County Hurdle would have found ten winners from 67 bets for a profit of £104.25 to a £1 level stake at SP. This angle has found nine of the last ten winners.
Foxhunters, Ten-Year-Olds
Since 2014, backing all ten-year-olds in the Foxhunters would have found six winners from 49 bets for a profit of £128.63 to a £1 level stake at SP. Last year’s two qualifiers included 50-1 third Time Leader (the other was 150-1 shot From Ther Heart, who pulled up). Backing all the qualifiers at Betfair SP would have returned a profit of £332.65 after 2% commission.
Grand Annual Handicap Chase, Recent Run
Since 2014, horses who had raced within the past 28 days were 0-41.
Grand Annual Handicap Chase, Conditional Jockey
Jockeys claiming an allowance are 0-27 in the Grand Annual since 2014.
Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys’ Handicap Hurdle, Prepped in a Handicap
Since 2014, horses who prepped in a handicap are just two from 145 in the Martin Pipe for a loss of £123.00 at a £1 level stake at SP (expected winners = 5.44, A/E = 0.37). Laying the qualifiers at Betfair SP would have made a profit of £107.21 (after 2% commission).
Stable Plate, Won in a Big Field Last Time Out
Since 2014, only 12 horses have line up in the Stable Plate on the back of a win in a field of 11 or more runners and five of them scored. Backing all the qualifiers returned a profit of £39.08 to a £1 level stake at SP (expected winners = 1.22, A/E = 4.10).
Ultima Handicap Chase, SP of 11-1 or shorter
Since 2014, backing every runner in the Ultima Handicap Chase who started at odds of 11-1 or shorter would have found ten winners from 64 bets for a profit of £28.50 to a £1 level stake at SP.
Cheltenham Gold Cup
Stats and Trends
Age
Nine of the last ten winners were aged seven or eight, the other was a nine-year-old. Horses aged ten or older were 0-22.
Market position
SP favourites have won five of the past ten renewals for a profit of £5.86.
Market Position Last Time Out
Nine of the last ten winners started as SP favourite in their prep race. Backing all 44 qualifiers would have returned a profit of £8.86 to a £1 level stake at SP. Those who were not favourite last time out were one from 84 for a loss of £76.00 to a £1 level stake at SP. The exception was 7-1 winner Sizing John in 2017 who was sent off as the 100-30 second favourite for his prep race.
Finishing Position Last Time Out
Eight of the last ten winners were successful in their prep race, though backing all 59 qualifiers would have returned a loss of £12.14 to a £1 level stake at SP. The exceptions had finished second (A Plus Tard in 2022) and Minella Indo (2021).
Trainer Country of Origin
Irish trainers have won eight of the last ten renewals, with the exceptions coming in 2018 (Native River) and 2015 (Coneygree).
The Main Contenders
Galopin Des Champs, successful in the last two renewals, cemented his position at the head of the market when landing the Irish Gold Cup at the Dublin Racing Festival. That run took his chase record on left-handed tracks to 11F1111111 (9-10) and he’s going to be desperately difficult to beat.
Fact To File, third to Galopin Des Champs at the DRF, still needs to prove that he’ll stay an extended 3m2f on a stiff track and could yet end up in the Ryanair Chase. He still jumps out to his right on occasions when racing left-handed and looks opposable.
Banbridge is ground dependent, and he had the fast surface that suits when staying on strongly in re-applied cheekpieces to deny Il Est Francais in the King George. He’s now 2-2 in the headgear but could also take the Ryanair route, especially if the ground is on the soft side.
Corbetts Cross landed the National Hunt Challenge Cup over 3m6f at last season’s festival and may have won the 2023 Albert Bartlett but for running out at the last hurdle. He shaped well on unsuitably fast ground when sixth in the King George and would have an each-way shout if it came up soft or heavy.
The Henry de Bromhead yard was badly out of sorts when Monty’s Star finished less than eight lengths behind Galopin Des Champs at the DRF. He found only odds-on favourite Fact To File too good in the Brown Advisory at this meeting last year and could be the each-way play if his stable is showing signs of life come festival time.
Grangeclare West found only stablemate Galopin Des Champs too good at the DRF and this lightly-raced nine-year-old is another with place claims.
L’Homme Presse has form figures on left-handed tracks of 11131141 (6-8) for a profit of £9.03 to a £1 level stake at SP. He finished a respectable 16-1 fourth (beaten by just over 15 lengths) in this race last year and could make the frame again.
Summary
It’s almost impossible to oppose GALOPIN DES CHAMPS, especially with the next two in the market – Fact To File and Banbridge – also entered in the Ryanair. The last-named is also reliant on good ground and the best each-way alternative could be last year’s fourth L’Homme Presse, who has a fine record on left-handed tracks. Monty’s Star is another possible each-way play, though his yard was badly out of sorts at the time of writing.