This week I’m going to take a detailed looked at the Boodles Juvenile Handicap Hurdle, best known as the Fred Winter and a race with a history of shock results. Had we backed all 451 runners in this 2m contest since its inception in 2005 we’d have lost only £5.00 to a £1 level stake at SP (-1.11% on turnover) but made a profit of £204.81 (+45.41%) at Betfair SP (after 2% commission). In the past ten years only, a profit has been realised at both SP (+£19.50) and BSP (+£114.15).
Stats and Trends
This race has been part of the Cheltenham festival meeting for 20 years and in that time some fascinating stats and trends have emerged…
Finishing Position Last Time Out
Fred Winter winner tend to fit into two categories when it comes to their prep race – they had usually won in a low grade contest or finished fourth or worse, often in a graded race. Horses who finished second or third in their prep race in Britain or Ireland are just one from 167 for a loss of £157.00 to a £1 level stake at SP. The sole winner was Lark In The Mornin, successful last year at odds of 9-1. Those who won in a Class 4 contest were seven from 78 for a profit of £30.00. Runners who finished fourth or worse in a Class 1 contest immediately prior to the festival were five from 53 for a huge profit of £139.00. This angle produced 80-1 winner Jeff Kidder in 2021 and has often been a useful each-way or Placepot angle, with 40-1 fourth Harsh one of only four qualifiers last year and Risk Belle, the sole qualifier in 2023, running third at 10-1.
Trainer Country
British trainers were responsible for the winners from 2015-2017 but the last seven winners were all Irish-trained. Simply backing all horses who prepped in Ireland in the past ten years would have found seven winners from 80 bets for a profit of £88.00. In 2016, there were only three qualifiers but there were 13 last year. Five of the recent Irish winners ran in a rated novice hurdle (four of them in the same contest at Naas and another at Navan) and backing all 15 qualifiers would have returned a profit of £62.00 thanks to winners at 33-1, 18-1, 10-1, 15-2 and 7-2. This angle also found placed horses at 14-1 (second), 14-1 (fourth) and 6-1 (second) as well as a 22-1 sixth (some bookies pay extra places on this race). The Naas race was run last Saturday (February 8th) and was won by Bacchanalian. The other six runners, in finishing order, were Murcia, Ephesus, Holy See, Kurasso Blue, Castleheath and Mickey Cohen.
Running Style Last Time Out
Eight of the last ten winners were ridden patiently at Cheltenham (pace abbreviation = H)…
…front-runners (L) were 0-11, while prominent racers (P) just two from 61.
The Main Contenders
It’s very early days where this race is concerned, as we don’t know the entries or the weights. Stencil heads the antepost lists at a best-priced 11-2 on the strength of his ten-length second to Triumph Hurdle hope East India Dock in Grade 2 company on Trials Day. Bacchanalian has understandably shortened up (now a best-priced 14-1) after his win in a key trial at Naas, while narrow runner-up Murcia is also prominent in the antepost betting (12-1 best). The Alan King-trained Midnight Rumble failed to settle when fourth of seven at Warwick last time and looks a likely improver for a big field/strong pace scenario. However, he’s going to need to win in the next couple of weeks to achieve a high enough mark to get into the race (currently rated 113). TORRENT has been removed from the Triumph Hurdle betting which hopefully means that he’s heading here. Nigel Hawke’s son of Camelot took his record over hurdles to 12123333 (2-8) when a 40-1 third to East India Dock on Trials Day and his other two starts in Graded races produced further bronze medals at 40-1 and 33-1. He handles any going but might have more to offer on good ground and is sure to be finishing strongly. His ante-post price ranges from 33-1 to 50-1 (check terms, as not all firms are non-runner no bet) and he’d my recommendation for those looking to have a small interest at this stage.