In this week’s column I’m going to take a close look at the stats, trends and main contenders for the Grade 1 My Pension Expert Arkle Challenge Trophy Novices’ Chase (2.00 Tuesday)…
Stats and Trends
Age
The last ten winners were aged six (x6), seven (x3) or eight (x1). Those aged five were 0-7 and the older horses (nine+) were 0-6. Since the five-year-old weight for age allowance was removed in 2008, this age group is 0-11 (expected winners = 1.36). In the same period, six-year-olds are eight from 45 for a profit of £21.91.
SP rank
In the past ten renewals, the SP favourite has won on eight occasions for a profit of £6.04 to a £1 level stake. The exceptions were Notebook (sixth at 5-2 on 2020) and Hardline (seventh at 100-30 in 2019).
Finishing Position Last Time Out
Last time out winners are nine from 42 in the past ten years but still returned a loss to £1 level stakes at SP (-£5.96). The exception – Gaelic Warrior in 2024 – had unseated his rider. Those who completed the course when beaten in their prep race were 0-40. Those who won a Grade 1 or Grade 2 contest were eight from 24 for a profit of £6.04.
Running Style
Two winners (from a sample of 13 runners) made all or disputed the early running, seven winners (from 26 runners) raced prominently, while only one winner (from 51 runners) was ridden patiently.
Last Time Out Running Style
Those ridden patiently last time out were 0-16 (-£16.00), horses ridden prominently in their prep race were three from 44 (-£36.96), while last time out front-runners were seven from 30 (+£2.00).
System
In the past ten years backing horses aged between six and eight, who made the running when landing a Grade 1 or Grade 2 contest in their final start before Cheltenham, would have found five winners from eight bets for a profit of £15.00 to a £1 level stake at SP. The beaten horses unseated (9-2), finished second (2-1 shot Jonbon in 2023) and finished fourth (33-1).
The Main Contenders
Last year’s Triumph Hurdle winner Majborough is two from two over fences but has failed to convince in the jumping department and five-year-olds are 0-11 since the weight allowance was abolished.
Seven-year-old L’eau Du Sud took his record over fences to 1111 (4-4) when holding on by a length from subsequent scorer Rubaud in the Grade 2 Kingmaker Chase at Warwick last month and his forcing/prominent style will be an asset. One of his chase wins came over the Arkle course and distance on good ground and he ran well at last year’s festival, finding only Absurde too good when 7-2 favourite for the County Hurdle on heavy going.
Jango Baie tends to race on the front end and, though beaten into second in his prep race, that was only by a short head in the Grade 1 Scilly Isles Novices’ Chase over 2m4f at Sandown. Nicky Henderson’s six-year-old is unbeaten in two starts over the Arkle trip of 2m and has never finished worse than second in his career.
Gidleigh Park made all in Grade 2 company at Windsor last time to take his record at the 2m trip to 111 (3-3). He was only sixth at last year’s festival but failed to stay the 3m trip in the Albert Bartlett after racing keenly in rear and could run a big race if a recent setback is not as serious as feared.
Conclusion
With five-year-olds struggling since the weight allowance was abolished, Majborough, whose jumping could be an issue, looks worth taking on at very skinny odds. The obvious each-way alternative is L’EAU DU SUD at odds of around 4-1 (9-2 best with bet365), especially as we’re getting three places in a race that could easily cut up to just a handful of runners. I’m also going to play JANGO BAIE e/w (8/1 Sky Bet and Ladbrokes), who has never been out of the first two places in his career. Gidleigh Park has been removed form the betting by several firms, and it looks as though he could miss the race.
And the Brown Advisory…
I did also take a quick look at the stats for the Brown Advisory – the 3m novice chase on Wednesday (2.00) but there was nothing especially helpful, apart from the good record of SP favourites when it comes to the Placepot…
Stats and Trends
Age
Seven of the last ten winners were aged seven but the majority of the runners came from this age group and is not statistically significant (expected winners = 6.34).
SP favourites
Six of the last ten winners were clear favourites and backing them all would have returned a profit of £6.74 to a £1 level stake at SP. The beaten favourites finished second by a short head (5-4 shot Gerri Colombe in 2023), third by two lengths (5-2 Allaho in 2020), third by a two and a quarter lengths (15-8 poke Delta Work in 2019) and third by eight lengths (More Of That, 6-4 in the 2016 renewal). Simply banking on the SP favourite would have seen us safely negotiate this leg of the Placepot in each of the last ten years. The other winners were third or fourth in the betting.
Finishing Position Last Time Out
Seven of the last ten winners have won their prep race but 50 runners qualified and backing them all returned a loss of £18.76 to a £1 level stake at SP (expected winners = 7.42).