Regular viewers of GG’s Weekend Watch will know that I enjoy mares-only races as there some punting angles that often get overlooked and help us to find value selections. We have three races confined to mares at the Cheltenham festival – the 2m1f Grade 2 novices’ hurdle, the 2m4f Grade 1 hurdle and the 2m4.5f Grade 2 Mrs Paddy Power chase and it’s the chase that I want to concentrate on in this article.
The mares’ chase has only been part of the Cheltenham festival for four years and every winner has been trained in Ireland. Those winners were prominent in the betting – 3-1, 9-4, 9-4 and 15-8 – but we’ve had British-trained placed horses at 33-1, 33-1 and 28-1 in the last three renewals and there could be some each-way value next month…
Mrs Paddy Power Mares’ Chase (Cheltenham 2,40, Friday, March 14)
Stats and trends
With only four previous runnings we don’t have a great deal to go on…
Age
All four winners were aged seven or eight
Recent form
All four winners were successful in their prep race, though backing all 16 qualifiers would have returned a loss of £2.63 to a £1 level stake at SP.
Prep race
All four winners prepped in Class 1 company, though only five of the 37 runners raced at a lower level.
Distance last time out
Those who were stepping back in trip after running over 2m6f+ in their final start before Cheltenham were 0-10.
Running style
One winner made all, three were prominent, while those ridden patiently were 0-16.
The Main Contenders
Last year’s runner-up Dinoblue heads the antepost betting at around the 9-4 mark on the back of her narrow Naas verdict over Allegorie De Vassy on February 8th. Willie Mullins’ eight-year-old only went down by three-quarters of a length in last year’s renewal when patient tactics proved her undoing, but she’s now lost on all three visits to the Cheltenham festival, starting as favourite on each occasion (11-8, 7-2 and 15-8) and I’m happy to take her on again.
Bioluminescence, in the same ownership as Dinoblue, was trading as the 100-30 second favourite at the time of writing but is cutting back in trip after her runner-up effort over 3m1f to Dancing City at Naas last time and seems reliant on deep going. This race might provide an insufficient stamina test, especially if the ground rides good to soft or faster.
Allegorie De Vassy tends to jump out to her right and did so when a beaten favourite in this race two years ago. She was only fourth in last year’s renewal and is likely to prove vulnerable again.
Limerick Lace was successful in this race 12 months ago and she has a useful record when racing against her own sex, recording form figures of 11122312144412 (7-15). However, she has been beaten by 30, 76 and 25 lengths in her three starts since last year’s festival and the return to mares-only company failed to spark a revival at Fairyhouse on New Year’s Day.
Strong traveller Only By Night took her chase record to 111 (3-3) when staying on well to deny Kilbarry Saint over the extended 2m1f trip at Exeter last time, However, she was well beaten on her only start over 2m4f and her connections have her entered in the Arkle, which is reportedly the more likely target if the ground comes up heavy.
Lucy Wadham’s front-runner Telepathique has form figures since her racecourse debut of 10211211 (5-8) and she defied a market drift to score comfortably at Huntingdon last time, despite jumping persistently out to her left on the right-handed track. The stiffer track is a concern and, while sure to give it a good go, she’s there to be shot at.
Spindleberry is up in class after her beginners chase win at right-handed Cork where she jumped markedly out to her right. It’s hard to imagine Cheltenham suiting her and quotes of 16-1 owe more to trainer Willie Mullins than what she’s achieved on the track.
Brides Hill has been beaten at odds-on in Listed mares’ chases in Britain the last twice and is likely to struggle again.
Panic Attack has a good record against her own sex, recording form figures of 1211832113331 (6-13) for a profit of £5.43 to a £1 level stake at SP, including a two from two haul in Class 1 company. Her two runs on Cheltenham’s New Course have produced a victory in a Listed mares’ handicap hurdle and a fourth behind Stage Star, Datsalrightgino and Unexpected Party in the 2023 Timeform Novices’ Handicap. She has plenty to find with the principals on official ratings, but we saw with Pink Legend (beaten by half a length at 33-1in 2022 despite being rated 18 lower than the winner and placed again at 33-1 the following year) that course form can trump ratings in this contest.
La Renommee finished a 12-length last of four behind Telepathique at Huntingdon last time, but she lost all chance when shifting left and making a bad mistake at the second fence and it’s safe to ignore that effort. The Dr Richard Newland and Jamie Insole-trained seven-year-old has won six of her 17 starts over fences (+£13.75 to a £1 level stake at SP), including form figures on good or faster going (based on race times, not the official going) of 11111 (5-5). She handles good to soft going and, provided it isn’t any slower, she could sneak into the frame. The daughter of Dr Dino has run here three times before, recording form figures of 231 (1-3) and she recorded a career-best RPR (Racing Post Rating) of 146 when successful in Listed company at Doncaster on her penultimate start.
Conclusion
Those at the head of the betting look far from bombproof and we could be in for a shock result. PANIC ATTACK (33-1 best) and LA RENOMMEE (66-1 best) have both run well here in the past and could offer some each-way value, especially the last-named if the ground rides no worse than good to soft.