I’m going to use the final column before the festival to provide some statistical pointers for the handicaps on a race-by-race basis but first, a few trainer snippets…
Ireland Versus Britain in Festival Handicap Chases
Since 2020 (i.e. the last five Cheltenham festivals), Irish-trained runners have a superior strike-rate in handicap chases compared to those based in Britain (6.06% as compared to 4.50%)…
However, if we exclude the Kim Muir from these figures the recent strike-rate for Irish-trained runners in handicap chases doesn’t look so rosy, with only four winners from 98 runners against an expected winners figure of 6.25 (EX Wins in the table below)…
Willie Mullins in Handicap Chases
Willie Mullins has never had a handicap chase winner at the Cheltenham festival from 48 attempts…
TUESDAY, March 11th
2.40 Ultima Handicap Chase
The market remains the best guide to the festival’s opening handicap, with runners returning at a Starting Price of 11-1 or shorter landing nine of the last ten renewals…
There are several qualifiers each year but backing them all each-way with firms offering extra places has been a successful strategy. Last year, four of the six qualifiers finished in the first six, while in 2023 the seven qualifiers included the first five finishers.
The late Trevor Hemmings enjoyed success in this race and runners in his colours (now Hemmings Racing) have a useful recent record, suggesting that outsiders FAMOUS BRIDGE (fourth last year at 25-1) and RICHMOND LAKE could also go well…
4.40 Hallgarten And Novum Wines Juvenile Handicap Hurdle
Horses who ran in an Irish rated race last time out have done well, winning five times (from just 15 runners) for a profit of £62.00 to a £1 level stake at SP….
Since the Fred Winter’s inception those stepping up in grade after winning in Class 4 company have performed well and backing only the qualifiers who had raced within the past five weeks would have found seven winners from 44 bets for a profit of £64.00.
Since 2018 (seven renewals), simply backing horses who ran in Ireland last time out, regardless of where they finished, would have found all seven winners and made a profit of £102.00…
5.20 National Hunt Challenge Cup Novices’ Handicap Chase
The National Hunt Challenge Cup is a handicap for the first time this year, so we don’t have any stats/trends to study. However, the old 2m4f novices’ handicap chase at the festival – also a 0-145 contest – might offer some clues. That was a real ‘plot’ race, and the market was often the best guide, with 14 of the 16 winners coming from the first six in the betting. Backing all 108 qualifiers would have returned a profit of £19.50 to a £1 level stake at SP.
WEDNESDAY, March 12th
2.40 Coral Cup
Higher-weighted horses have performed well in the past ten years and simply backing the top six in the weights (there can be more than six qualifiers per year if they were joint or co-sixth) returned a profit of £67.50 to a £1 level stake at SP.
In 2015, the first five finishers were aged five or six but, since then, horses from those age groups have struggled. This is the ten-year-record for five and six-year-olds…
Previous Cheltenham festival form has been a good guide – 40 horses in the past ten years had won or placed at any previous Cheltenham festival and they provided four winners for a profit of £57.50…
…this angle would have seen us safely through to the next leg of the Placepot in seven of the past eight seasons.
Backing only the top six weights who were aged seven or older would have found six of the past ten winners and made a profit of £91.50…
3.20 Glenfarclas Cross Country Chase
This race is being run as a handicap again for the first time since 2015, so recent stats/trends are unlikely to prove helpful. I’ve no strong opinion on the race but given his tendency to find one too good in his races – as he did behind Stumptown over course and distance last time out – I’ll be backing MISTER COFFEY to finish exactly second. Sky Bet and Coral offer this market.
4.40 Johnny Henderson Grand Annual Challenge Cup Handicap Chase
Horses who ran in the last 28 days are 0-37 in the past ten years…
Those in the top three in the weights are 0-31 in the past ten renewals against an expected winners figure of 1.75. Last year’s three qualifiers finished sixth (13-2), seventh (10-1) and 11th (12-1).
Last time out winners are just 1-40 against an expected score of 2.89 (-£35.50 to a £1 level stake at SP). Though place laying them might not be a good idea as 12 of the beaten horses finished second, third or fourth.
Previous Cheltenham festival form – horses who had run at any previous Cheltenham festival (regardless of race type or where they finished) are 8-114 in past ten years for a profit of £75.50 (+66.23% on turnover). At Betfair SP (after 2% commission) the profit was £204.82 (+179.67%)…
THURSDAY, March 13th
2.00 Jack Richards Novices’ Limited Handicap Chase
This is a new race but given the bias to front-runners over fences on Cheltenham’s New Course (in use on Thursday and Friday at the festival) it should help to race up with the pace.
These are the results of chases on Thursday at the last five Cheltenham festivals split by run style (L = led, P = prominent, H = held up)…
2.40 Pertemps Network Final Handicap Hurdle
Age – in the past ten years horses aged nine or older have failed to register a single victory…
Pace – Proform’s database allocates a points score to previous running styles: Led = 4, Prominent = 2 and Held-up = 0. The last three runs are added together to give a simple pace score of between 0- and 12. In the last ten renewals of the Pertemps Final, those with a Proform pace score of six or higher have fared poorly…
Backing all those aged eight or younger who had a pace rating between 0 and 4 would have hit the last ten winners (from 121 qualifiers) and made a profit of £14.00 to a £1 level stake at SP…
Splitting those 121 runners by trainer nationality makes interesting reading, with the Irish contingent out-performing their British rivals by some distance…
4.40 TrustATrader Plate Handicap Chase
Pace – this has been a terrible race for hold-up horses (last ten renewals)…
The problem is that six winners were ridden patiently in their prep race (see below) so it’s not just a case of looking at pace map, more an angle for in-running betting…
Last time out winners have fared well of late…
…whereas those who finished second, third, fourth, fifth or sixth in their prep race have a poor record….
5.20 Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir Challenge Cup Amateur Jockeys’ Handicap Chase
Unlike in the Grand Annual, a recent outing has been helpful in finding winners of the Kim Muir, with six of the last ten having raced in the past 28 days…
…backing all the qualifiers would have returned a profit of £52.50 to a £1 level stake at SP.
Breeding – Irish sires have provided seven of the past ten winners…
FRIDAY, March 14th
2.00 William Hill County Handicap Hurdle
SP rank last time out – those who started as favourite for their prep race are just 1-51 in the past ten years…
Trainers – Willie Mullins and Dan Skelton have won nine of the past ten renewals between them (from 59 runners) for a profit of £101.25…
Pace – in the past ten years, 72 horses led or race prominently and all were beaten…
Those with a Proform pace score of 0 (i.e. ridden patiently in their last three starts) have proved profitable to follow…
5.20 Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys’ Handicap Hurdle
Runners who prepped by finishing in the top three in a Class 1 hurdle have a good record in the past ten years…
Those who contested a handicap in their final run before Cheltenham have a very modest record in the past ten years…
Weight – those carrying 11-00 or less have a poor record since this race’s inception…
Age – in the past ten years those aged eight or older have struggled…
