Ayr and Newbury both kick off their exciting weekend meetings on Friday. Andrew Mount covers the lot with his best bets.
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Posted: 2:06pm, Thursday, April 10th
2.40 Ayr – HISTRIONIC (1pt win – 4/1 William Hill)
This usually goes to a young horse (aged five or six) outside the top two in the weights and backing all 37 qualifiers in the past ten renewals would have found eight winners for a profit of £12.33 (expected winners = 4.10, A/E = 1.95). HISTRIONIC, one of four qualifiers, caught the eye when third to the 135 rated Saint Palais (since raised to 145 over fences) on unsuitably soft ground in a novices’ hurdle at Uttoxeter on his penultimate start and has since scored in a fast time on good ground in maiden hurdle company at Chepstow. He remains open to further improvement and a mark of 121 could be lenient on his handicap hurdle debut.
4.25 Ayr – NURSE SUSAN (1pt win – 5/1 William Hill) & I LOVE MY BAIE (1pt win – 11/1 William Hill)
The top two in the weights have struggled in this 2m5.5f handicap hurdle in the past ten renewals, failing to register a win from 23 runners (expected winners = 3.70). Backing all runners ranked third or lower in the weights returned a profit, though if we throw in the proviso that they were aged nine or younger and prepped in a hurdle race over 2m4f or further the score is nine from 38 for a profit of £35.30 (expected winners = 4.22, A/E = 2.13). NURSE SUSAN, one of five qualifiers today, looks very interesting on her second run after a break. Dan Skelton’s eight-year-old is two from two on her second start of the season and ran with credit in the Martin Pipe at last Month’s Cheltenham festival on her return from a long absence, finishing 11th of 24 to Wodhooh. Her trainer has a good record in this race and the first-time cheekpieces could help – Skelton is 21 from 113 with this headgear on runners who finished out of the frame on their most recent outing for a profit of £48.25 t o a £1 level stake at SP (expected winners = 16.61, A/E = 1.26). She was pulled out of an intended Aintree run because good ground was deemed unsuitable and while soft going would have been preferable, today’s watered good to soft going should be fine for her.
The other one of interest is the Stuart Crawford-trained I LOVE MY BAIE, who returns from a break of 305 days. Her trainer won this back in 2017 and the seven-year-old was a big eyecatcher at this meeting 12 months ago, doing best of the prominent racers when third in the 3m novices’ handicap hurdle. He didn’t quite see out the trip that day and has form figures over 2m6f or shorter of 13123114 (4-8).
5.20 Newbury – PHOTOSYNTHESIS (1pt win – 12/1 William Hill)
PHOTOSYNTHESIS is on his third trainer after just seven career starts but the switch to Peter Chapple-Hyam could bring further improvement this term and the four-year-old looks worth chancing in the 6f Dubai Duty Free Handicap. Since his racecourse debut, the son of Aclaim has form figures over trips of about 6f on anything other than heavy going of 1161 (3-4), with the defeat excusable as he was poorly drawn, ridden patiently in a race that favoured those on the front end and was hampered to boot. Since 2010, Chapple-Hyam is nine from 46 at the first time of asking with horses he takes over from other yards (+£5.58 to a £1 level stake at SP) and his stall 1 draw should not be viewed negatively as, since the start of the 2021 season, those drawn in stalls 1 to 5 are 13 from 95 in Newbury sprint handicaps of 10+ runners for a profit of £26.70. Throw out those ridden patiently last time out (Photosynthesis was always prominent when scoring at Lingfield last time on his final run for Tom Clover) and the score is nine from 52 for a profit of £43.33.
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Andrew Mount’s Best Bets
2.40 Ayr – HISTRIONIC (1pt win – 4/1 William Hill)
4.25 Ayr – NURSE SUSAN (1pt win – 5/1 William Hill) & I LOVE MY BAIE (1pt win – 11/1 William Hill)
5.20 Newbury – PHOTOSYNTHESIS (1pt win – 12/1 William Hill)
Andrew Mount’s Horse Racing Tips – Friday, 11th April
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