Cheltenham returns for its three-day November meeting. Andrew Mount looks for winners at Prestbury Park among his daily top tips.
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Posted: 3:32pm, Thursday, November 14th
1.10 Cheltenham – DOUBLE POWERFUL (2pt win – 5/1 bet365, 9/2 William Hill)
There are a few interesting stats associated with this 2m5f conditional jockeys’ handicap hurdle…
Age
Five-year-olds have a useful record, including seven of the of the last eight winners
Trainer
David Pipe has a good record, scoring with five of his 25 runners for a profit of £49.33 to a £1 level stake at SP (three winners were aged five, the others two were six-year-olds). Pipe’s father, Martin, also won this with a five-year-old in 2002 (20-1 shot Jurancon II).
Days since last run
Horses making their seasonal return have a solid record, with those returning from a break of 150 days or longer recording 14 wins from 143 runners this century for a profit of £34.58, though after a run of 11 straight winners on this angle (2009-2019), the last four had raced within the past four weeks.
Running style
14 of the last 21 winners were ridden patiently, while seven were prominent throughout. Front-runners were 0-26.
Track position
All of the above stats could be rendered largely irrelevant if there’s a strong track bias and it was certainly advantageous to race wide in last year’s renewal. David Pipe’s five-year-old American Sniper, hugged the outside rail until the very late stages when he was almost caught by White Rhino who sneaked up his inside against the fence.
DOUBLE POWERFUL arrives here in fantastic form having won his last five starts, coming from off the pace on every occasion. His jumping has lacked fluency at times, but the big field/likely strong pace will help in that regard, and he’s better equipped to handle the prevailing good ground than the majority of his rivals. Of the remainder, Billy Lee Swagger would have preferred slower ground but should still be finishing to good effect, while the new headgear could keep last year’s winner American Sniper interested and he might prove best of the David Pipe runners (I worry about Phantomofthepoints front-running style).
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1.45 Cheltenham – RESPLENDENT GREY (1pt win – 9/2 Paddy Power, 4/1 generally)
Springwell Bay understandably heads the betting for this Listed novices’ chase after his Chepstow success on his first start over fences but I’m still clinging to the belief that he might ultimately prove best right-handed, as his record that way round reads 21112 (3-5), with the first defeat by three-quarters of a length in a 22-runner bumper at Punchestown when 10-1 on his racecourse debut and the other by a neck when 4-1 for a 14-runner handicap hurdle at Musselburgh last term. I was with Hyland here last month when he improved for the step up to 3m for the first time over fences but his record outside the March to October period reads 443336 (0-6) and he could be one to field against until the spring. I’m interested in the other pair – Buddy One and RESPLENDENT GREY, with preference for the last-named, who won well from off the pace on his chase debut at Uttoxeter last time, a track that usually favours forcing tactics. The step up to 3m promises to suit and he should get a solid pace to chase despite the small field.
4.00 Cheltenham – CALLIN BATON ROUGE (1pt ew – 33/1 generally)
I was keen on the chances of CALLIN BATON ROUGE in a 2m4f handicap hurdle here last month but the Charles & Adam Pogson-trained six-year-old failed to see out the trip and weakened to finish 12 lengths back in eighth of 13. The daughter of Westerner has won her three other starts for current connections, all on good ground over 2m-2m2.5f, and a strong pace at this 2m trip will be just the ticket. I’ve saved on Balhambar.
Andrew Mount’s Best Bets
1.10 Cheltenham – DOUBLE POWERFUL (2pt win – 5/1 bet365, 9/2 William Hill)
1.45 Cheltenham – RESPLENDENT GREY (1pt win – 9/2 Paddy Power, 4/1 generally)
4.00 Cheltenham – CALLIN BATON ROUGE (1pt ew – 33/1 generally)
Double Powerful
Resplendent Grey
Andrew Mount’s tips for Friday, 15th November 2024.
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Cheltenham is a track shrouded in myth and mystery, but from a punting perspective, we can unearth winners from the fact and the folly. Andrew Mount looks into handicap hurdles at Prestbury Park to see if a long-held angle rings true. We have three days of racing at Cheltenham to look forward to at the…
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