Four racing fixtures take place on Friday 28th March and our top tipster Andrew Mount is here with his best bets of the day, as he looks to head into the weekend with a winner.
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Posted: 4.40pm, Wednesday, March 19th
4.07 Wetherby – REALISATION (1pt win – 13/2 bet365)
REALISATION returned from wind surgery with a close-up third over 2m4f on good ground at Warwick in early October and the form received a few boosts – winner The Flier Begley followed up and runner-up Finn Lough recorded two wins and two second places from his next five starts. Realisation herself went desperately close at Lingfield on her next outing (2m4f, good), going down by a head in second place at Lingfield, and can be forgiven her two subsequent defeats, failing to cope with the step up to Class 3 level at Cheltenham when mid-division in Game On For Glory’s race and jumping to her left at right-handed Market Rasen on her return from 80 days off. Sean Bowen takes over from David Bass today and while the 3m trip is an unknown quantity, she shapes as though it will suit.
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4.40 Southwell – HAVECHATMA (1pt win – 12/1 Paddy Power)
HAVECHATMA took her course record in Class 6 company to 1111 (4-4) when landing a 5f handicap under today’s pilot Grace McEntee on January 30th and can be forgiven her subsequent Lingfield defeat over the same trip. Upped to Class 5 level that day, she was very weak in the market and had the worst of the draw in stall 1 of 6 when the inside rail was riding exceptionally slow. She’s been freshened up since and will be much happier back at this venue.
7.00 Dundalk – STOP THE NATION (1pt win – 13/2 Paddy Power)
Progeny of the sire Sioux Nation have a good record in small fields (ten or fewer runners), landing 142 of their 741 starts (19.2% strike-rate) for a profit of £90.17 to a £1 level stake at SP. That strike-rate improves to 21% over trips of 5f-7f only (106 winners from 506) bets for a profit of £151.66 (expected winners = 80.06, A/E = 1.32). That’s one positive statistical pointer to the chance of STOP THE NATION in this 5f maiden and the other is his foaling date. Jack Davison’s colt is a January foal and backing those in early-season (march-April) two-year-old races, since 2016, would have found 41 winners from 246 bets (16.7%) for a profit of £52.81. He should be further forward than some of his younger rivals and is worth a small interest.
Andrew Mount’s Best Bets
4.07 Wetherby – REALISATION (1pt win – 13/2 bet365)
4.40 Southwell – HAVECHATMA (1pt win – 12/1 Paddy Power)
7.00 Dundalk – STOP THE NATION (1pt win – 13/2 Paddy Power)
Andrew Mount’s tips for Friday, 28th March 2025
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