A new week kicks off, and Andrew Mount gives you his following best bets and has three selections for Monday 11th November…
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Posted: 8:21am, Monday, November 11th
1.30 Carlisle – TOP MAN TOM (1pt win – 14/1 bet365, 12/1 William Hill)
Sandy Thomson has a solid record at the second time of asking with horses he takes over from other trainers, with our 2pt winner Gold Des Bois on Saturday taking the score since the beginning of 2017 to 16 winners 61 bets for a profit of £103.13 to a £1 level stake at SP. TOP MAN TOM will improve for his fifth place at Kelso in September and is worth a speculative punt.
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3.25 Kempton – MAGICAL ARTHUR (1pt win – 9/4 bet365)
Bang in-form Jennie Candlish has a fine record when fitting her hurdlers/chasers with a first-time visor, scoring with 11 of the 41 runners since the beginning of 2015 for a profit of £66.00 to a £1 level stake at SP. MAGICAL ARTHUR has run some solid races since fitted with cheekpieces, recording form figures of 212 (1-3), and did well to finish just one length behind the all-the-way winner at Ayr last time as the ground was slower than preferred and he was outpaced when the steady pace picked finally up. The first-time visored Candlish runners do well when making the running (five of the 11 run, though only one of those had made the running on its latest start) and in a race largely devoid of early pace I’m hoping/expecting Gavin Sheehan to have him up with the pace today.
4.15 Wolverhampton – TIMETOBENICE (1pt win – 5/1 bet365, 9/2 William Hill)
Marco Botti has a good record when switching one of his runners from turf to Tapeta, including a haul at Wolverhampton of 56 winners from 273 bets (20.5% strike-rate) for a profit of £51.97 to a £1 level stake at SP (expected winners = 41.01, A/E = 1.37). TIMETOBENICE was a 9-1 Kempton winner (1m) in the corresponding week last year on his stable/all-weather debut before a 12-1 runner-up effort over the same course and distance. He disappointed on his Tapeta debut at Southwell next time, finishing a three-length fourth over 1m3f but struggled to see out the trip. Two turf defeats followed that effort (10-1 third and 20-1 last of nine) and the 15-day break and return to the all-weather can see the son of Time Test bounce back to form.
Andrew Mount’s Best Bets
1.30 Carlisle – TOP MAN TOM (1pt win – 14/1 bet365, 12/1 William Hill)
3.25 Kempton – MAGICAL ARTHUR (1pt win – 9/4 bet365)
4.15 Wolverhampton – TIMETOBENICE (1pt win – 5/1 bet365, 9/2 William Hill)
Andrew Mount’s tips for Monday, 11th November 2024.
Andrew Mount’s Myth Busters – Sedgefield Form Doesn’t Travel
I’ve heard the expression “Sedgefield form doesn’t travel” from racing pundits on numerous occasions (as recently as last week on William Hill radio) and I’ve often downgraded the chance of Sedgefield winners when they change venue for their next start. However, I’ve never dug into the stats in detail, and I want to use this…
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