Andrew Mount looks to the jumps at Southwell and the all-weather at Wolverhampton for his best bets on Monday.
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Posted: 4.25pm, Sunday, March 16th
2.20 Southwell – ULTRA BEAT (1pt win – 7/2 bet365)
ALI STAR BERT is a horse I like to back each-way or place only when he runs at Southwell, as he usually finishes in the first two or three – his full course record over fences reads 212122232 (2-9) – but 5-4 is short enough for one with a dose of seconditus. DR KANANGA caught the eye after racing in the ‘swamp’ on the inside rail at Lingfield two runs back but disappointed on good ground at Doncaster next time and it’s unlikely to be soft enough for him today. The one to take the pair on with is Henry Daly’s ULTRA BEAT, who didn’t handle the bottomless ground when a distant fifth at Chepstow last time. His earlier Warwick third to New Order on good to soft going worked out well – the winner, fourth, fifth and seventh have all won since – and the first-time visor could help.
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6.30 Wolverhampton – SOUTH DAKOTA SIUOX (1pt win – 4./1 bet365) & TRIGGERED (0.5pt e/w – 7/1 bet365)
SOUTH DAKOTA SIOUX was strong in the market against odds-on favourite OUR DAGGER in a 7f handicap at Kempton last time where he did well to finish just one length behind the progressive winner. John Butler’s five-year-old pulled over three lengths clear of the third and his three all-weather wins have come at Wolverhampton. His full record over tonight’s course and distance stands at 189511 (3-6), with the latest success also coming on the back of another runner-up effort at Kempton.
All seven of TRIGGERED’s wins have come in the March to October period (he’s 0-21 outside of this period) and if we only look at his runs over 7f on the all-weather in the warmer months his record reads 4121161458 (4-10) for a profit of £24.25 to a £1 level stake at SP. Mark Loughnane’s veteran wasn’t beaten far over course and distance when fifth under Luke Morris last month and it’s good to see Billy Loughnane back on board tonight.
7.30 Wolverhampton – INFANTRY OFFICER (1pt win – 11/2 bet365)
Form figures of 990 (0-3) hardly suggest that Michael Bell’s INFANTRY OFFICER is a good bet in this 1m4f handicap but there are some strong statistical pointers that hint at better to come this evening. The three-year-old son of Land Force has been gelded since beating only a couple home when 150-1 for a 6f novice contest at Windsor last August and his trainer has a fine record with newly gelded handicap debutants, scoring with 24 of the 82 qualifies (29.3% strike-rate) for a profit of £48.88 to a £1 level stake at SP. In races over 1m1f or further the strike-rate improves to 46.3% (19 winners from 41 bets) for a profit of £61.13 (expected winners = 7.88, A/E = 2.41). There was promise in his debut ninth of 14 in a 7f restricted maiden at Kempton, a race that worked out well – he finished just half a length of subsequent handicap winner Matharu (eighth) who is now rated 73, two-and-a-quarter lengths behind Antiquity (seventh) who won on his handicap debut off 57 and is now rated 64 and a length and a quarter ahead of Tactical Plan who has won twice since and is currently rated 79. The runner-up, third, fifth, 11th and 12th have also won at least once since.
Andrew Mount’s Best Bets
2.20 Southwell – ULTRA BEAT (1pt win – 7/2 bet365)
6.30 Wolverhampton – SOUTH DAKOTA SIOUX (1pt win – 4/1 bet365) & TRIGGERED (0.5pt e/w – 7/1 bet365)
7.30 Wolverhampton – INFANTRY OFFICER (1pt win – 11/2 bet365)
Andrew Mount’s tips for Monday, 17th March 2025
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