Seven cards go ahead on a busy Saturday, highlighted by the Ayr Gold Cup. Andrew Mount provides his best bets in Scotland and elsewhere.
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Posted: 6.12pm, Friday, September 20th
1.15 Ayr – ARAGON CASTLE (1.5pt win – 7/1 generally)
ARAGON CASTLE ran a blinder in the 1m Clipper Handicap at York, finishing an 11-1 sixth of 18, going down by just over two lengths and emerging best of those drawn in double figure stalls. That race is working out well, with the third, tenth and 16th winning since (two of those were also badly berthed) and it was a huge effort in the circumstances. He was too keen over 1m2f at Goodwood the time before, finishing fifth, and is best judged on his earlier easy Hamilton win, his sole previous trip north of the border. Andrew Balding’s three-year-old looks nicely drawn in stall 3 and is tactically versatile.
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1.30 Newbury – DESPERATE HERO (1pt win – 10/1 Betfair, Paddy Power)
DESPERATE HERO got into a fierce battle for the early lead with Equality when we backed him in the Group 3 Coral Charge Stakes at Sandown in early July, seeing off that rival (who finished last) but getting passed by Makarova and Purosangue in the closing stages. He proved unsuited to very fast ground when last of ten behind Big Evs in Group 2 company at Glorious Goodwood next time but returned to something very close to his best when a 66-1 sixth of 18 in the Group 1 Flying Five Stakes at the Curragh last Sunday. This is a quick turnaround, but the rain has come in time and he’s 1-1 over course and distance.
2.10 Newmarket – SHEMOZZLE (1pt win – 10/1 bet365)
We’re back on the Rowley Mile course at Newmarket today (thank goodness!) and though the stalls are in the centre of the track the runners could well migrate to the near side, favouring high draws. The one I like for this 1m fillies’ handicap is Ralph Beckett’s SHEMOZZLE (stall 13 of 13), who very much caught the eye over the extended 1m2f trip at York last month, finishing a 14-1 ninth of 15 after doing too much too soon from her poor high draw. She faces competition for the early lead from Get Jiggy With It (stall 5) but drops down from Class 2 to Class 4 level and, if the stands’ side ‘golden highway’ is open for business, she’ll be first to the favoured rail.
4.10 Ayr – AL MUQDAD (2pt win – 4/1 bet365)
AL MUQDAD’s three runs over this course and distance have a produced two wins and a close-up third (beaten by a head and a nose) and David O’Meara’s hold-up performer looks set to encounter the required strong gallop. His run of nine consecutive in-the-frame efforts was ended when he was sixth of 12 at Thirsk last time but the race was not run to suit – the winner made all, the runner-up sat in second place, the third occupied that place for the majority of the race and the fourth was fourth on turning in. Three of the hold-up horses from that 7f contest have run since – fifth-placed Patontheback who finished a close-up 10-1 third at Newcastle earlier this week, seventh-placed Yaaser (beaten by 11 lengths in total) who landed a punt in the 4.45 at Ayr yesterday and tenth-placed Danzan, placed at 22-1 at Ayr yesterday. Al Muqdad could be sharpened up by the first-time cheekpieces and looks set to go well. Yaaser and Danzan re-oppose again but he still rates a strong bet.
Andrew Mount’s Best Bets
1.15 Ayr – ARAGON CASTLE (1.5pt win – 7/1 generally)
1.30 Newbury – DESPERATE HERO (1pt win – 10/1 Betfair, Paddy Power)
2.10 Newmarket – SHEMOZZLE (1pt win – 10/1 bet365)
4.10 Ayr – AL MUQDAD (2pt win – 4/1 bet365)
Andrew Mount’s tips for Saturday, 21st September 2024.
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