Saturday’s racing features the Betfair Chase from Haydock and our top tipster has a brace of selections for the Grade 1 contest. He also some other tips at Haydock and Ascot, so check them all out here.
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Posted: 1:16pm, Friday, November 22nd
1.15 Haydock – JOSH THE BOSS (1pt win – 15/2 William Hill, 13/2 bet365) & KNIGHT OF ALLEN (0.5pt ew – 14/1 Ladbrokes)
JOSH THE BOSS bolted up in the Silver Trophy at Chepstow last month, clocking a fast time in the process. That race is working out remarkably well, with five of the beaten horses (from 11 runners) scoring at the next time of asking. Nigel Twiston-Davies’ front-runner faces competition for the lead but he’s unbeaten in three left-handed hurdle starts below Grade 1 level and the 7lb rise for Chepstow could have been a lot more.
Jane Williams’ runners usually improve for their reappearance efforts and that certainly looks the case with KNIGHT OF ALLEN, who was weak in the market prior to his third place in division one of the British EBF “National Hunt” Novices’ Hurdle at Uttoxeter five weeks ago. The four-year-old raced keenly under stable jockey David Noonan but kept on well without threatening, to finish just over five lengths behind the winner – Olly Murphy’s unbeaten Wade Out. He goes handicapping off a mark of 120 and, while he’ll likely to better when stepped up to 2m4f+ later this season, I still want to have a small interest in this 2m contest.
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2.05 Ascot – FORTESCUE (1pt ew – 9/1 William Hill)
FORTESCUE has a cracking record in chases of 11 or fewer runners, recording form figures of 12112113231427222 (6-17) for a profit of £27.50 to a £1 level stake at SP. He was a 7-1 winner on his sole previous visit to Ascot and Henry Daly has started the season in good fashion.
2.30 Haydock – PATRIOTIK (1pt ew – 12/1 generally)
PATRIOTIK ran fifth of 17 in the Silver Trophy at Chepstow on last month’s reappearance, a race that is working out extremely well. The Evan Williams-trained five-year-old recorded a fast time in defeat and will appreciate the step back up in trip, having kept on well when a close second over 2m6f at Ffos Las on his penultimate start. His trainer does well in handicap hurdles at Haydock, scoring with 12 of his 69 runners for a profit of £60.25, including five from 13 in the month of November for a profit of £33.25. Five of the last six November runners to start at 16-1 or shorter were successful, with the other running third.
3.05 Haydock – ROYALE PAGAILLE (1pt win – 4/1 generally) & BRAVEMANSGAME (1pt ew – 10/1 generally)
Last year’s Betfair Chase winner ROYALE PAGAILLE has form figures at Haydock of 11211 (4-5), with the sole defeat to A Plus Tard in the 2021 renewal when the ground was faster than preferred. The forecast heavy rain will improve his chances and he looks a solid play despite advancing years.
BRAVEMANSGAME is remarkably consistent in the early months of the peak jumps season, recording form figures over hurdles/fences in the October to February period of 21111111112222 (9-14). He was odds-on when second to Royale Pigaille in this race last year but probably doesn’t deserve to be around 10-1 this time, especially now fitted with first-time blinkers. My database goes back to 1997 and in that time, Paul Nicholls is 30 from 160 (18.8% strike-rate) with his chasers in first-time blinkers for a profit of £51.50 to a £1 level stake at SP, including three from seven in Grade 1 company. The three Grade 1 qualifiers that started at odds of 16-1 or shorter all won – See More Business in the 1999 Cheltenham Gold Cup (16-1), Silviniaco Conti (2-1) at Ascot in February 2016 and Clan Des Obeaux (13-2) at Aintree in April 2022.
Andrew Mount’s Best Bets
1.15 Haydock – JOSH THE BOSS (1pt win – 15/2 William Hill, 13/2 bet365) & KNIGHT OF ALLEN (0.5pt ew – 14/1 Ladbrokes)
2.05 Ascot – FORTESCUE (1pt ew – 9/1 William Hill)
2.30 Haydock – PATRIOTIK (1pt ew – 12/1 generally)
3.05 Haydock – ROYALE PAGAILLE (1pt win – 4/1 generally) & BRAVEMANSGAME (1pt ew – 10/1 generally)
Royale Pagaille
Bravemansgame
Andrew Mount’s tips for Saturday, 23rd November 2024.
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