The showpiece meeting on Saturday is undoubtedly at Newmarket, though Andrew Mount looks across all the cards for his best weekend bets.
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Posted: 9.53pm, Friday, September 27th
1.50 Newmarket – LAW OF DESIGN (1pt win – 12/1 generally)
LAW OF DESIGN caught the eye on his debut when third on the July Course, doing best of the closers, and built on that when successful in a Class 2 contest on soft ground at Ascot next time. Brian Meehan’s gelding clocked a useful time for that two and a half-length win according to Proform’s ratings and the form was given a minor boost when runner-up Mr Fantastic landed the odds at Newcastle earlier this week. He was prominent throughout at Ascot and a similar ride could see him out-perform his market position against a number of rivals far from certain to handle the prevailing deep going on breeding.
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2.25 Newmarket – LEOVANNI (1pt ew – 18/1 William Hill, 16/1 generally)
LEOVANNI overcame what was probably a disadvantageous low draw when landing the Queen Mary Stakes at Royal Ascot at odds of 22-1 and her subsequent Lowther Stakes third to Celandine was a rock-solid effort as she challenged closest to the stands’ side rail, the slowest part of the track. All three of her career runs have taken place on officially good to firm going but her breeding suggests that she’ll be happy on the very soft ground. Her sire, Kodi Bear, gets plenty of sprint winners on good to soft or softer going, with 32 of the 202 qualifiers scoring (15.8% strike-rate) and there’s also encouragement on the dam’s side that underfoot conditions could bring about improvement.
2.40 Haydock – WOBWOBWOB (1pt win – 5/1 bet365, 9/2 Betfair, BetVictor)
WOBWOBWOB was pulled out of his intended run in the 7f handicap here yesterday, presumably to wait for this 6f contest. I’m going in again but to a smaller stake as it’s difficult to be sure as to whether his stall 4 of 13 draw will be helpful or not. Here’s what I wrote yesterday…
My tracker entry for WOBWOBWOB simply says “Autumn. Especially first start each autumn” and now is the time to side with Adrian Keatley’s six-year-old. He looked to be coming to the boil nicely when fifth of 17 in the Great St Wilfrid Handicap at Ripon last month, a race in which he was third las year before landing the Ayr Silver Cup on his first autumn outing. He also landed his first autumn start in 2022 (at Catterick on October 15th after eight weeks off) and was an eyecatching third at Ayr on 18th September 2021after a ten-week break. It was a similar story in 2020 when his first autumn run resulted in a three-length victory in a 19-runner handicap at Thirsk (14th September). The gelding has been freshened up by a six-week break since Ripon and the soft ground is in his favour.
3.40 Newmarket – LOOK BACK SMILING (1pt ew – 40/1 bet365, Coral, BetVictor) & BALMACARA (1pt win – 14/1 generally)
Spring Mile winner LOOK BACK SMILING loves deep ground, recording form figures on going rated as soft or heavy by Proform of 21445114 (3-8), with the fifth place easily excused as he completely blew the start. I took a chance and bet him at Ascot last time, despite the inadequate 7f trip, but he took a big walk in the market and had to settle for a close-up fourth under a tender ride. He challenged unnecessarily wide that day on his first start for 113 days, the ground was faster than the official version according to Proform and, with the benefit of hindsight, it looked like a prep for today’s race. Look Back Smiling is drawn very low (stall 5 of 37) which doesn’t look great on recent Cambridgeshire evidence but it’s rare for this race to be run on soft going – it has only occurred twice this century, with Credit Swap winning on the far side from stall 3 of 35 in 2010 (the first six finishers all raced far side) and Blue Monday also doing the business from stall 3 in the 2005 renewal (first three drawn 3, 5 and 6 of 30).
I also want to side with another low-drawn runners – BALMACARA (stall 1), who looks the likeliest front-runner on the far side. The son of New Bay has form figures in the mud of 3112 (2-4), with third place when 28-1 on his racecourse debut. The form of his other soft-ground defeat – a two-length loss to Persica at Sandown – was given a timely boost when the winner landed a Listed contest at Ayr last week.
Andrew Mount’s Best Bets
1.50 Newmarket – LAW OF DESIGN (1pt win – 12/1 generally)
2.25 Newmarket – LEOVANNI (1pt ew – 18/1 William Hill, 16/1 generally)
2.40 Haydock – WOBWOBWOB (1pt win – 5/1 bet365, 9/2 Betfair, BetVictor)
3.40 Newmarket – LOOK BACK SMILING (1pt ew – 40/1 bet365, Coral, BetVictor) & BALMACARA (1pt win – 14/1 generally)
Andrew Mount’s tips for Saturday, 28th September 2024.
Andrew Mount’s Myth Busters – Always Back an In-Form Filly in the Autumn
One racing cliché that’s often rolled out at this time of year is to “side with fillies in form”. However, you’ll rarely, if ever, hear a pundit or journalist back this up with data so I thought I’d take a closer look to see if this is a profitable punting angle. The following table shows…
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