Our resident tipster Andrew Mount is here with his best bets on Saturday 4th January, as he looks to kick off the first weekend of 2025 on a winning note.
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Posted: 1:05pm, Friday, January 3rd
12.05 Sandown – LUD’OR (1.5pt win – 11/4 bet365)
We’re largely guessing as to the ability of Khrisma, a dual AQPS winner in France who makes her debut for Nicky Henderson today, but I still don’t want to let LUD’OR go unbacked. He caught the eye when a close-up second in a maiden hurdle at Stratford back in October, doing best of those to come from off the pace. Tom Symonds’ five-year-old had 26 lengths to spare over the next patiently-ridden finisher – fifth-placed Trust house, who has since won a handicap hurdle at Leicester. Sixth-placed Diamond Geezer, another who came from off the pace, has since chased home the progressive Strackan at Uttoxeter and even 250-1 seventh Soldier’s Leap ran second on his next start. Lud’Or didn’t see out the 2m4f trip when third at Uttoxeter next time but was only beaten by two lengths and clocked a good time in the process. He looks a major player now cutting back to 2m.
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12.40 Sandown – XCITATIONS (1pt win – 9/2 Paddy Power, 888Sport)
Current favourite Beat Box has won six of his seven starts for Dan Skelton, but he bombed out at Hexham in October (finishing fourth of five when 6-4 favourite) the only time he has run on a stiff track for his current yard, and he also struggled on similar courses when with James Ewart. XCITATIONS was only third when we bet him at Haydock last time on his second start of the current campaign but perhaps that run, like his reappearance, was also needed. Pam Sly’s ten-year-old has won second or third time out in each of the past four seasons, including in this race two years ago on his third outing and he should be fitter today.
1.15 Sandown – HOURVARI (1pt win – 4/1 generally)
Seniors handicap hurdles – the hurdles equivalent of veterans’ handicap chases – are confined to horses aged eight or older and the ‘younger seniors’ usually hold sway. These races are rare but blindly backing the eight-year-olds would have found 12 winners from 75 bets and made a profit of £19.75 to a £1 level stake at SP (expected winners = 10.13, A/E = 1.18). Eight-year-olds who finished in the top three last were eight from 32 for a profit of £18.25. HOURVARI, who represents in-form Olly Murphy, shaped well on his comeback when runner-up to Mr Bramley at Wetherby and was an easy winner on his only previous start on a right-handed track.
1.50 Sandown – ROCCOVANGO (1pt win – 7/2 William Hill, Paddy Power)
ROCCOVANGO took his record for current trainer Olly Murphy to 211121 (4-6) when scoring narrowly at Uttoxeter last time, with the defeats by a neck and a nose. The nine-year-old had jumped out to his right on left-handed tracks the last twice and the return to a right-handed venue for the first time since his maiden hurdle win at Huntingdon last March can bring about further improvement.
3.35 Sandown – SPIRITS BAY (1pt win – 9/1 bet365, Ladbrokes, BetVictor)
SPIRITS BAY has shortened up since I tipped him on GG’s Weekend Watch podcast/YouTube channel on Thursday afternoon but he’s still worth a bet at the current odds. The Nigel Twiston-Davies-trained seven-year-old failed to settle at Cheltenham on his comeback at Cheltenham last month when a respectable 25-1 fifth of 14 (beaten by just over seven lengths) and the return to a right-handed track will suit, as his record this way round reads 1211 (3-4).
Just for information – I wouldn’t put you off Fortescue in the Veterans’ Series Final, especially if you can be on each-way with Sky Bet who are offering four places, but he’s far more likely to finish second that win and the 10-1 (9-1 Sky Bet) has gone.
Andrew Mount’s Best Bets
12.05 Sandown – LUD’OR (1.5pt win – 11/4 bet365)
12.40 Sandown – XCITATIONS (1pt win – 9/2 Paddy Power, 888Sport)
1.15 Sandown – HOURVARI (1pt win – 4/1 generally)
1.50 Sandown – ROCCOVANGO (1pt win – 7/2 William Hill, Paddy Power)
3.35 Sandown – SPIRITS BAY (1pt win – 9/1 bet365, Ladbrokes, BetVictor)
Andrew Mount’s tips for Saturday, 4th January 2025
Andrew Mount’s Myth Busters – Do Horses Switching from Fences to Hurdles Make Bad Bets?
Andrew Mount looks into a horse’s campaigning in his latest Myth Busters article, pondering whether horses switching from fences to hurdles make bad bets… When I first started to take my betting seriously in the early 1990s, I remember reading an article by Nick Mordin regarding horses who were reverting to hurdles after running in…
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