Aintree’s Grand National fences are witnessed for the first time this jumps season today. Here are Andrew Mount’s best bets to hopefully give you a profitable start to the weekend.
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Posted: 8:35am, Saturday, November 9th
11.38 Kelso – GOLD DES BOIS (2pt win – 5/2 generally)
Sandy Thomson runners tend to perform best in the peak winter period (November to February), landing 131 of their 720 starts since 2012 (18.2%) for a profit of £221.85 to a £1 level stake at SP. Forty of those 720 runners were having their second start for the yard after leaving another trainer and 11 of them won for a profit of £100.70. GOLD DES BOIS is the latest qualifier and the ten-year-old looks worth a bet having caught the eye with good late work when a 10-1 second to Pay The Piper over course and distance on last month’s stable debut. He drops from Class 3 to Class 4 level and could prove hard to beat.
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2.35 Doncaster – WOVEN (0.5pt ew – 16/1 generally)
WOVEN is not the easiest to win with, as his four from 51 career score suggests, but he has a fine record here at Doncaster, with form figures of 23132 (1-5). The Michael Dods-trained eight-year-old was beaten by more than nine lengths when an 8-1 fourth of eight at Haydock last time but he was on the receiving end of a huge draw bias and raced closest to the stands’ rail, by far the slowest part of the track. He could have done with more front-runners in opposition to two him into this but, with his yard in good form, he’s worth chancing to small each-way stakes.
3.30 Wincanton – LORD BADDESLEY (1pt win) & AL DANCER (1pt ew – 20/1 bet365, Hills, both three places, 16/1 Sky Bet, Betfred, both four places)
Early pace is of massive importance in the Badger Beer Handicap Chase, and in the past ten years, horses ridden patiently have a 0-73 record. This could count against current favourite The Changing Man, usually ridden patiently, though I concede he’s still difficult to confidently oppose given the fine form of the Tizzard yard, especially with horses returning from wind surgery as he is. I’ve gone off Lord Accord despite his advantageous running style, mainly on price grounds though he does usually regress at about this time of year – from November to April his record reads U762213P5296P956 (1-16). I’f a fan of Antony Honeyball’s Forward Plan who was agonisingly beaten (by a nose) when we were on for the Great Yorkshire Clase last term, but his patient style is a worry, and he was only sixth to his stablemate Blackjack Magic when reappearing in this race 12 months ago. The most fascinating runner today is another from the Honeyball yard, namely LORD BADDESLEY. The nine-year-old left Chris Gordon over the summer and has a useful record when fresh, especially on his seasonal debuts…
2nd by a neck (40-1)
WON (7-2)
4th (9-2) – failed to settle under restraint on chase debut
2nd (8-1)
3rd (9-2)
…he hasn’t had many opportunities over 2m6f or further – staying on into a 12-1 second behind Inch House at Newbury (2m6.5f) before going down by only nine lengths when seventh at 10-1 in Coral Trophy Handicap Chase at Kempton (3m). He was ridden patiently that day – not ideal for Kempton – but I’m hoping/expecting that he’ll revert to more prominent tactics this afternoon.
The other bet is the one I liked on Thursday’s Weekend Watch – the best-fresh AL DANCER, who seasonal debut record stands at…
2nd (beaten by half a length)
WON
WON
WON
15th – jumped poorly and reportedly never travelling in the 2021 Paddy Power Gold Cup on debut for Sam Thomas
WON
WON
…his forcing style will be an asset and though yet to race here his form at Kempton (he found only Forward Plan too good in last season’s Coral Trophy) suggests that it won’t be an issue.
Andrew Mount’s Best Bets
11.38 Kelso – GOLD DES BOIS (2pt win – 5/2 generally)
2.35 Doncaster – WOVEN (0.5pt ew – 16/1 generally)
3.30 Wincanton – LORD BADDESLEY (1pt win) & AL DANCER (1pt ew – 20/1 bet365, Hills, both three places, 16/1 Sky Bet, Betfred, both four places)
Gold Des Bois
Andrew Mount’s tips for Saturday, 9th November 2024.
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