Andrew Mount focuses on the sole flat meeting of the day on Sunday, with two best bets from Ayr.
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Posted: 8.30am, Sunday, July 6th
3.30 Ayr – ASTEVERDI (1pt win – 7/1 Coral, Ladbrokes)
THE OUTLAW, who made virtually all at Carlisle last time, could be worth opposing as the track was massively favouring his running style that day and the prominent racers in second/fourth have both been beaten since. Ralph Beckett’s colt also faces competition for the early lead from KELPIE GREY. Take the pair on with Hugo Palmer’s ASTEVERDI, who makes her stable debut after leaving Alice Haynes. The four-year-old has twice been withdrawn from intended runs because good to firm ground was deemed unsuitable and today’s underfoot conditions are likely to prove idea. She won on soft ground at Nottingham last autumn on her final start for Haynes and her new handler does well at the first time of asking with horses he takes over from other yards (not including the Manor House ones he took over from Tom Dascombe), scoring with seven of the 37 qualifies (19% strike-rate) for a profit of £33.75 to a £1 level stake at SP (expected winners = 3.64, A/E = 1.92). Since the start of last year, the score is four from five (+£28.00) and the fact that her connections have scratched her twice on account of ground conditions suggests that they’re expecting a big run when she finally makes her yard debut.
4.05 Ayr – QITAAL (1pt win – 4/1 generally)
Charlie Johnston’s QITAAL was a big eyecatcher at Doncaster’s Lincoln meeting, doing too much too soon into the headwind when finishing a close-up third behind a pair of patiently ridden rivals in a 1m2f handicap. The next horse to come from off the pace was tenth-placed Asgard’s Captain who we bet when successful at Epsom next time. I also recommended Qitaal on his next start, but he could only manage a modest fourth at Pontefract when heavily backed into 2-1 favouritism. Four more defeats have followed since that Pontefract run, latterly when five and a half lengths back in fourth at Chester, but all came in Class 2 or 3 company and he could be worth siding with now dropping to Class 4 level for the first time since his eight-length romp at Chester last September. I’m hoping that he’ll revert to front-running in a race lacking obvious pace angles, as he can race keenly under restraint.
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Andrew Mount’s Best Bets
3.30 Ayr – ASTEVERDI (1pt win – 7/1 Coral, Ladbrokes)
4.05 Ayr – QITAAL (1pt win – 4/1 generally)
Andrew Mount’s Horse Racing Tips – Sunday, 6th July
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