A bumper six cards are slated for action on Thursday, and Andrew Mount guides you towards winnings with his best bets.
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Posted: 4:25pm, Wednesday, November 20th
3.00 Warwick – LADY PRETENDER (1pt win – 6/1 bet365)
The Venetia Williams-trained LADY PRETENDER didn’t show a great deal in a couple of spins over hurdles last season after leaving France but that’s par for the course where the yard’s foreign imports are concerned, and we can expect more now that the five-year-old mare goes handicap chasing after a wind operation. She finished runner-up in her last three chase outings in France, finding only Sweet David (easy winner of the Cross Country Chase at Cheltenham last week) too good in the latest of them. Her trainer does well with her first-time wind op runners in handicap chase company who were returning from at least 150 days off the track, scoring with 14 of the 44 qualifiers for a profit of £63.53 to a £1 level stake at SP. Those having their first run over fences in Britain were six from 13 (+£20.95).
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7.00 Southwell – POPULAR DREAM (1pt ew – 25/1 Paddy Power)
POPULAR DREAM’s patient running style isn’t ideal for the straight 5f course at Southwell and trainer Derek Shaw has a 0-97 record since the beginning of May. However, only three of those runners started in the first three in the betting and his expected number of winners was only 2.50. Since 2016, had we backed the yard’s runners in all-weather handicaps who had raced within the past fortnight we’d have won 85 of our 618 bets (13.75% strike-rate) and made a small profit at SP (+£14.55), with those who started in the top two in the betting landing 46 of their 141 starts (32.6%) for a profit of £44.23. Popular Dream is unlikely to be that short in the betting, but he caught the eye from off the pace here nine days ago when keeping on to finish a three-and-a-half-length 66-1 fifth of nine on his first run for 134 days. The four-year-old ran a very similar race on his stable debut back in March, going down by the same margin when a 40-1 sixth of 11 on the back of a 305-day absence, again over course and distance, before finishing second by a neck at 22-1 at Chelmsford just 17 days later. He drops from Class 4 to Class 5 level today and, with a strong pace likely, can pick up the pieces late and get in the frame at least.
Andrew Mount’s Best Bets
3.00 Warwick – LADY PRETENDER (1pt win – 6/1 bet365)
7.00 Southwell – POPULAR DREAM (1pt ew – 25/1 Paddy Power)
Lady Pretender
Andrew Mount’s tips for Thursday, 21st November 2024.
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