Cheltenham is a track shrouded in myth and mystery, but from a punting perspective, we can unearth winners from the fact and the folly. Andrew Mount looks into handicap hurdles at Prestbury Park to see if a long-held angle rings true.
We have three days of racing at Cheltenham to look forward to at the end of this week (Friday to Sunday) and Friday’s card piqued my interest as there are two impossible-looking races that bookend the card – the 2m5f conditional jockeys’ handicap hurdle (1.10) and the 2m novices’ handicap hurdle (4.00), which feature 20 and 16 runners respectively. Plenty of punters will be happy to draw a line through these races, especially the finale which produced winners at 33-1, 33-1, 33-1 and 28-1 in the four renewals before 2-1 favourite Impose Toi obliged 12 months ago. Glancing at the roll of honour for both races, the good record of five-year-olds stands out, with seven of the last eight winners of the conditional jockeys’ race representing that age group and five of the last seven in the novices’ handicap.
I’m going to use this article to attempt to find some profitable punting angles for both races and examine the record of five-year-olds in handicap hurdles at Cheltenham in general, especially at the ‘off meetings’ (i.e. outside of the festival in March).
In the past ten years backing all five-year-olds in the 2m5f conditional jockeys’ race would have hit the winner seven times from 48 bets and made a profit of £7.08 to a £1 level stake at SP…
…the expected number of winners (EX Wins), based on their prices, was only 3.85. In the same period the four-year-olds were 0-8, while those aged six or older were just three from 136 for a loss of £122.67 (EX Wins = 6.03).
In the same ten-year-period (nine renewals, as Friday’s racing was abandoned in 2019, with the conditional jockeys’ race being run on the Sunday) five winners were aged five (from 70 runners, +£22.33 to £1), while those aged three or four had a combined record of 1-46…
…six-year-olds also fared poorly (0-31), though there were a few older winners at big prices.
Looking at all Cheltenham handicap hurdles since the beginning of 2014, outside of the March festival, and excluding juvenile handicap hurdles, the age breakdown is as follows….
The three-year-olds show a profit from a tiny sample size but the four-year-olds have a very poor record, with just five winners from 155 runners for a loss of £113.00. Laying them at Betfair SP would have returned a profit of £98.08 after 2% commission (+62.28% on turnover). The five-year-olds also showed a loss at SP but their strike-rate (10.67%) was vastly superior to the four-year-olds (3.23%) and that loss became a profit at Betfair SP.
Going back to Friday’s opener, only six of the 20 runners are aged five which helps us to narrow the field, with DOUBLE POWERFUL and PLAISIR DES FLOS, who are both seeking their sixth straight win, the obvious ones. However, Philip Rothwell’s BILLY LEE SWAGGER arrives here fresh, ran well to finish fourth of 24 in a 2m3.5f handicap hurdle at the Punchestown last time and remains open to improvement over this longer trip.
As for the 2m novices’ handicap that closes Friday’s card, a top five finish last time out has also been a good pointer, with all nine winners in the study period fulfilling this criteria – combining this angle with horses aged five or older would have found eight winners (from 94 bets) and made a profit of £68.33 to a £1 level stake at SP. Seven of the 16 runners qualify on this angle, with Martin Keighley’s SHINJI one who could go well at an each-way price now dropped back to 2m after failing to see out the 2m5f trip at Ludlow last time.
In Summary
- Five-year-olds exceed market expectations in handicap hurdles outside of the March festival
- Four-year-olds have a poor record
- Given preference to five-year-olds in the 2m5f conditional jockeys’ handicap hurdle that opens Friday’s card
- Five-year-olds and older, who finished in the top five last time out, usually dominate in Friday’s 2m novices’ handicap hurdle.
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