We have a two-day Cheltenham meeting to get stuck into at the end of the week (Friday/Saturday) where the action switches from the Old Course – used during October/November – to the New Course. Last month, the Racing Post published a ‘Walking The Course With Aidan Coleman’ article in which the jockey highlighted the differences between the two courses. I’ve reproduced some of the more interesting quotes below…
Old course
“The Old course is where you run the speed races, the Champion Hurdle and the Champion Chase, whereas the stamina races – the Stayers’ Hurdle and the Gold Cup – are run on the New Course. That’s the way I try to get people to think about the differences.”
New course
“You’ve so much more time and you get far fewer hard-luck stories, even in the handicaps with bigger fields. There’s two jumps in the last seven furlongs over hurdles, which gives you more time, and you see a lot of winners coming from much further back. Look at the race that Paul Townend rode on Absurde in the County Hurdle, and it was similar when State Man won.”
“I cannot stress enough what a different track it is and you really need to be keeping your powder dry.”
Ruby Walsh wrote a similar article for the Paddy Power website in January of this year, concluding that “It all means that the Old Course is a faster track, and the New Course is a more stamina-laden track”.
My database doesn’t differentiate between the two courses, though by studying horses who ran at Cheltenham in December (New Course) having prepped at Cheltenham in the last two months (i.e. on the Old Course in October/November) I can discover whether form transferred from one to the other. Having read the above quotes from Aidan Coleman and Ruby Walsh I had expected such horses to make poor bets but the opposite is true. Since 2014, backing all runners at Cheltenham in December (New Course) whose last run came at Cheltenham in October or November of the same year (Old Course) would have found 52 winners from 271 bets (19.2% strike-rate) for a profit of £70.82 to a £1 level stake at SP (+£129.40 at Betfair SP after 2% commission)…
…the expected number of winners (EX Wins in the table above), based on their odds, was 40.45, giving an actual over expected score (A/E) of 1.29.
However, the above figures don’t tell us how those horses ran last time out. Did they win their prep race on the Old Course, or did they finish down the field? The table below shows the last time out finishing position (Fin Pos LTO) of the 271 runners (1 = first, 2= second, 3 = third etc, then 247 = unseated rider, 248 = slipped up, 249 = brought down, 250 = fell, 254 = pulled up)…
…those who finished in the top three last time out showed a profit at SP but so did runners who had fallen or pulled up.
This angle is going to be extremely useful when it comes to assessing the Nyetimber December Gold Cup (1.50 Saturday) as plenty of the runners will have prepped in the Paddy Power Gold Cup at the November meeting. Since 2016 (seven renewals, as the race was abandoned in 2022), horses who prepped in the Paddy Power are six from 31 in the December Gold Cup for a profit of £30.50 to a £1 level stake at SP. The four Paddy Power winners who attempted the double were all beaten (finishing third, fourth, sixth and seventh). The six December Gold Cup winners had finished second, third, fourth ninth, tenth and fallen in their prep run. Last year, there were three qualifiers, and they included 13-2 winner Fugitif and 17-2 runner-up Il Ridoto (the other finished a 28-1 sixth). In 2021, the six qualifiers included the first three home (12-1, 12-1 and 11-2), as well as the fifth and sixth. The Tote Trifecta paid £1,621. This angle drew a blank in COVID-affected 2020, with the three qualifiers finishing sixth, ninth and pulled up, though the year before the two qualifiers included the 7-1 winner. 2016 was another good year, with the five qualifiers finishing first (14-1), second (13-2), third (6-1), sixth and seventh.
This year’s qualifiers are…
MADARA – fourth of 15 in the Paddy Power Gold Cup on his debut for Dan Skelton, he won the 2m handicap chase at this meeting 12 months ago having prepped over the same trip on the Old Course at the November meeting.
FUGITIF – fifth to Il Ridoto in the Paddy Power, Richard Hobson’s nine-year-old won this race last year and a similar prep.
GA LAW – runner-up in the Paddy Power last month, he won over course and distance on Trials Day last term.
IL RIDOTO – short-headed in this race last year after his third to Stage Star in the Paddy Power on his reappearance. He won the Paddy Power last month on the back of a prep run and should be thereabouts once more.
IN EXCELSIS DEO – unseated rider when 8-1 for the Paddy Power. His three runs on the New Course have seen him land a Grade 2 handicap chase (2m4.5f), finish a 14-1 fifth of 21 in the Stable Plate (2m4.5f), going down by just over four lengths after being badly hampered by a faller, and running second to Madara over 2m at this meeting last year.
GUARD YOUR DREAMS – didn’t prep in the Paddy Power but worth an honourable mention as he did place in the Class 3 handicap chase over the same course and distance. He’s yet to run on the New Course over fences but his three hurdle runs here produced two wins and a third in Grade 2 company.
Summary
Despite the differences between Cheltenham’s Old and New Courses, simply backing runners at the two-day December meeting who prepped on the Old Course in October/November shows a profit.
This is a potent angle when it comes to assessing the December Gold Cup on Saturday (1.50) and, having finished one-two in the 2m handicap chase at this meeting last year after prepping at Cheltenham’s November meeting, MADARA and IN EXCELSIS DEO have done so again and this pair will form the bedrock of my exotic bets strategy when I attack the race using Tote Exactas and Trifectas.
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