We are often told that certain tracks favour front-runners, but hurdle and chase courses can ride very differently, and we can’t always group these races together when considering the ideal running style for a particular venue. Leicester is a case in point, and I want to use this article to examine what’s required to win at my local track.
Leicester’s going descriptions sometimes need a page of their own in the Racing Post and at last Monday’s meeting (November 18th) it was described as ‘Hurdle – GOOD TO SOFT (soft in places; 4.6); Chase – GOOD TO FIRM (Good in places; Good to soft on Flat course crossings; 6.7). The hurdle races are run on the Flat course, often watered over the summer, which rides much slower than the chase course which is left alone during the warmer months. When it’s very soft on the hurdles course the inside of the track can become badly churned up and the ideal tactic is to track wide in the straight on the better ground, this can favour those ridden patiently as the pacesetters tend to migrate to the ‘swamp’ on the inside rail. We saw plenty of examples of this last week, not least in the opener – a 2m4f conditional jockeys’ handicap hurdle. The race was won by 5-2 favourite LORD OF ALL SAINTS, who was ridden patiently before switching wide in the straight to score by three and a half lengths from 18-1 shot BROWNSTONE, who hugged the outside rail under another patient ride. The runner-up looked flattered and could only finish fourth at Ludlow on Monday (November 25th) when near the head of the betting (100-30 joint second-favourite). Pre-race, it’s difficult to predict who is going to race wide by looking at previous running styles/pace maps, as much depends on the jockey and riding instructions, and the simplest method is to wait until the last minute and quickly back those who are lining up wide and, if time allows, perm them in combination forecasts/tricasts or the Tote equivalents.
Jack Tudor impressed on David Pipe’s front-runner ACTIVIST, 12-1 winner of the concluding 1m7.5f handicap hurdle, as he lined up wide and stayed there until the vey late stages when tiredness caused him to lug right towards the ‘swamp’ on the inside rail. He was almost caught by 20-1 shot SALLEY GARDENS who, like Brownstone in the opener, looked flattered by taking the scenic route around the outside. Olly Murphy’s eight-year-old could be one to oppose at likely much shorter odds next time.
Compiling a list of jockeys who are aware of the bias on the hurdles course at Leicester might prove helpful but those looking to save time could simply consider opposing the less experienced riders (i.e. those who claim an allowance). The following table shows handicap hurdles at Leicester, split by jockeys’ claim…
…backing all 294 runners on whom a rider didn’t claim an allowance would have found 38 winners and returned a profit of £34.95 to a £1 level stake at SP. Conversely, riders who claimed 3lb or more were successful just 17 times from 162 mounts for a loss of £85.51 to a £1 level stake at SP.
The chase course is also biased, strongly favouring front-runners. The 2.10 race – a Class 4 handicap chase over the extended 2m6f trip – provided a good example, with winner THE WOLF (6-4 favourite) and runner-up ALMAZHAR GARDE (11-2) trading the lead throughout. The second has a well-deserved reputation for proving hard to win with (he’s now finished second in seven of his last nine starts) and in-running players who didn’t panic when the jolly was headed were rewarded with odds as big as 7.6. Pace maps were more helpful in predicting the winner. This was Proform’s….
These were the running styles of the 720 horses to run in the 120 handicap chases at Leicester since the beginning of 2019…
Front-runners (those with a pace abbreviation of ‘L’ (led)) won 24.62% of their starts and returned a profit at SP, while prominent racers (‘P’) returned a profit at Betfair SP after winning 17.3% of their starts. Hold-up horses (‘H’) had a strike-rate of only 9.29% and showed a loss of £94.44 at SP. Simply looking at the runners’ last time out pace abbreviation has been a good pointer to Leicester handicap chase winners, with those who led or race prominently showing a profit at Betfair SP…
Laying any horse who was ridden patiently in its latest start would have returned a profit of 12.79% at Betfair SP (after commission).
Leicester’s next meeting is scheduled for Sunday (December 1st) where the ground on the hurdles course (currently described as heavy, waterlogged in places) is likely to produce a strong bias, favouring those who race very wide.
Summary
- Be wary of backing jockeys claiming an allowance in handicap hurdles at Leicester, as they may not be aware of the track bias
- If possible, wait until just before the off when the runners are lining up and back those who look likeliest to race wide, especially on soft/heavy going
- Front-runners enjoy an advantage in handicap chases and simply backing those who led or raced prominently last time has proved to be a profitable angle (at Betfair SP)
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