The all-weather can be a key part of racing to bet on over the winter. Here, Andrew Mount debates the merits of Lingfield’s inside draw, and whether punters could gain an advantage avoiding low-drawn runners.
Two weeks ago, I discussed the draw at Wolverhampton, and I want to use today’s article to study Lingfield and how we can take advantage of the ‘dead’ rail. Today’s cold weather suggests that it won’t be long before we lose jumps meetings to frost/snow, and we’ll see pundits and journalists who don’t usually cover all-weather racing turn their attention to tipping on synthetics. Lack of knowledge of the individual tracks and their biases can lead to some embarrassing statements including the old chestnut “horse x has the advantage of the inside rail”. The inside route is rarely the place to be on Lingfield’s Polytrack and that’s especially true in the depths of winter.
The simplest angle when it comes to assessing a handicap race at Lingfield, regardless of distance and field size, is to avoid runners drawn in stalls 1 and 2. The following table shows how they fared since the beginning of 2021…
…had we bet all 2410 qualifiers we’d have found only 241 winners (prior to today’s racing – Tuesday, November 19th) but made a loss of £858.41 to a £1 level stake at SP (-35.6% on turnover). Laying the same horses at Betfair SP would have made a profit of £514.16 after 2% commission (+21.33% on turnover).
Those runners drawn in stalls 1 or 2 often end up against the inside rail where the Polytrack surface is deeper and they struggle as a result. Front-runners who have a clued-up jockey on board might be able to get out of the ‘swamp’ and splitting the above 2410 runners by pace abbreviation (L = led, P = prominent, H = held up) makes interesting reading….
…all three running styles showed a loss at SP but laying the front-runners would have produced a loss of £16.87 (-3.95%).
The longer the trip, the longer the low-drawn runners are likely to be racing against the ‘dead’ rail and the 21.33% profit by laying at Betfair SP becomes 45.2% if we only consider handicaps over 1m4f or further…
Having concluded that stalls 1 and 2 are at a disadvantage in Lingfield handicaps the next question to ask is “what happens to those low-drawn Lingfield handicap winners next time out?”. Since the beginning of 2021, 181 of those 241 stall 1 or stall 2 Lingfield handicap winners – who we assume were winning against a track bias – returned to the all-weather for their next start and they did remarkably well…
…recording 52 wins (28.73%) for a profit of £67.78 to a £1 level stake at SP (+£102.69 at Betfair SP).
Summary
Avoid stalls 1 and 2 in Lingfield handicaps this winter, especially over trips of 1m4f or further (though be wary of regular front-runners).
Those stall 1 and 2 Lingfield handicap winners often make good bets if returned to the all-weather for their next start.
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