Chester’s three-day May meeting gets underway tomorrow (Wednesday, May 7th) so I thought I’d use this week’s column to look at some race trends as well as some general punting angles for this unique venue…
WEDNESDAY
The action gets underway with the Lily Agnes Stakes (1.30) over the 5f trip, a race that has been a good one for fillies of late, who have outscored the colts 7-3 in the past ten renewals. We wouldn’t have made any money by backing the 37 qualifiers blind at SP but siding only with those who scored last time out would have found six winners from 18 bets for a profit of £6.95 to a £1 level stake at SP, with those drawn in stall 1 producing two winners (7-2 and 9-4) as well as an 11-2 third. Hat-trick seeker ALI SHUFFLE qualifies on this angle.
Race two (2.05) on Wednesday is a competitive 5f handicap which has been a fantastic trends race in recent years. Backing colts/geldings, drawn in stall 6 or lower, who ran on turf last time out and were ridden up with the pace, would have found eight winners from 19 bets in the past ten renewals for a profit of £29.00 to a £1 level stake at SP. Last year’s sole qualifier – 11-1 shot Knicks – was successful and we have just one qualifier again this time around, the Clive Cox-trained REDORANGE.
Next up is the Listed Cheshire Oaks (2.35) which has proved to be a happy hunting ground for Aidan O’Brien and Ryan Moore. They’ve combined on nine occasions, resulting in six winners and two seconds for a profit of £10.71 to a £1 level stake at SP. MINNIE HAUK is this year’s qualifier.
The Group 3 Chester Vase (3.05) has been another Aidan O’Brien benefit and his 19 runners across the past ten renewals have produced six winners for a profit of £4.44 to a £1 level stake at SP. Including all the yard’s runners would have seen us safely through to the next Placepot leg in all ten years. O’Brien saddles LAMBOURN, the mount of Ryan Moore, as well as THRICE (William Buick). His four runners included the one-two-three in 2017 (5-2, 8-1 and 7-1) and his two runners in 2019 ran one-two (13-2 and 9-2) for a CSF of £34.81.
The fifth contest on Wednesday is a 6f handicap for three-year-olds, one in which colts have the best recent record. Backing all 27 colts in the past ten renewals would have found five winners for a profit of £18.13. DILIGENTLY, CABELLEROSO, HAMMER THE HAMMER, MARCHOGION and BELGRAVE are this year’s five qualifiers. If pressed for just one selection I’d play CABELLEROSO, well drawn in stall 3, each-way.
THURSDAY
Race three on Thursday is the Listed Dee Stakes over the extended 1m2f trip, which has been another Aidan O’Brien benefit. This is his record in the past ten renewals…
…splitting those 14 runners by SP rank makes interesting reading, with the favourites winning five from six….
Again, the Ryan Moore angle was a strong one, with his ten mounts in the study period producing six winners, including six of the last seven…
FRIDAY
The race I look forward to the most on Friday is the 1m4f apprentice handicap, in the hope that Andrew Balding has a runner. Balding has an incredible record in apprentice handicaps at Chester, scoring with ten of his 16 such runners for a profit of £38.58 to a £1 level stake at SP (expected winners = 3.31, A/E = 3.02). This year, his sole entry is LEGACY POWER.
TRAINERS
If you’ve read the above pointers it will come as no surprise to learn that Aidan O’Brien is the leading trainer at Chester’s May meeting since 2014 (ten meetings, as COVID intervened in 2020) with 27 winners from 65 runners for a profit of £25.39 to a £1 level stake at SP. Andrew Balding is another who targets this meeting, with 26 winners from 140 runners for a profit of £26.15…
Balding’s runners drawn in stall 4 or lower were the biggest contributors…
JOCKEYS
There are a number of big-name jockeys who have struggled to ride winners on the Roodee in recent years, listed below. The presence of Jamie Spencer on the list is obvious given his tendency to ‘ride chilly’, tactics rarely helpful at this venue. James Doyle also tends to give his mounts patient rides, though the presence of Oisin Murphy is less expected…
