Andrew’s Angles – Going Back to Nursery School With Tips For Two-Year-Old Handicaps

The first nursery – handicaps for two-year-olds – takes place at Haydock this Thursday (July 3^rd) and I want to use this week’s article to discuss these notoriously tricky races and give some pointers as to how we can profit from them.

This could end up being a short article as one profitable putting method in British nurseries in recent years has been to back every horse in every race. Had we done so, since 2021, we’d have won 1002 of our 8679 bets (11.55% strike-rate) for a profit of £750.77 to a £1 stake at Betfair SP (after 2% commission). At SP the figure was a far less healthy -£1257.75…

…I’m not recommending this as a betting strategy but it’s a good way of highlighting how unfathomable some of the results in these races can be.

WEIGHT

One of the most discussed angles when it comes to nurseries is weight rank and every time a top weight lands one in the next few weeks you are sure to hear a TV/radio pundit say “the old adage – always back the top weight in a nursery” or words to that effect. However, this has not been a good strategy in the study period…

…backing them blind would have found 227 winners from 1361 bets (16.68%) for a loss of £282.91 to a £1 level stake at SP (-£110.36 at Betfair SP). This angle made a profit at Betfair SP in four years since 2010 but the overall picture for the past 15 seasons looks like this…

Laying every top weight (including joint and co top weights) at Betfair SP in British nurseries since 2010 would have returned a profit of 3.47% (after commission).

The one area where top weights do well is front-runners. These are the 1361 top weights split by running style (L = led, P = prominent, H = held up)…

However, it’s not easy to predict who is going to make the running as plenty of these switched tactics on their handicap debut after being ridden patiently in maiden/novice company last time out and this could be an angle for in-running players only.

TRAINERS

There are several trainers who have performed well in nurseries in Britain since 2021 and those with a WAX (winners above expected score) of 2.0 or bigger are listed below…

The other end of the table looks like this…

…with the Gosden’s one from 46 haul especially surprising.

FOALING MONTHS

Two-year-olds who were foaled in January and February enjoy an advantage over their younger rivals in early-season juvenile races, but things have evened out by the time the nursery season starts in July…

January/February foals have a poor WAX score in nurseries, whereas April foals recorded 16.76 more wins than expected (A/E= 1.06).

PREVIOUS WINS

The next area I looked at was number of previous career wins and the findings were quite surprising. Nursery runners with one previous win to their name were over-rated by the market and had a poor record…

…recording 299 wins from 2242 bets (13.34%) for a loss of £447.88 at SP (-£121.84 at BSP).

RECENT FORM

Last time out winners have had a poor record, as did runners who finished second or third in their prep race…

Grouping those runners together (i.e. first, second or third last time out) gave the following results…

…laying these at Betfair SP would have returned a profit of 5.58% (after commission).

SUMMARY

• Beware betting in nurseries in Britain as they can produce some odd results
• Contrary to popular belief, top weights, while having the occasional winning year, don’t make good bets
• Some smaller trainers specialise in these events, including Bryan Smart, Alic Haynes and Marcus Tregoning
• Nursery runners from top yards are often over-bet, e.g. John & Thady Gosden and Karl Burke
• April foals have a good record in nurseries, as do horses who finished fourth or worse in their prep race
• Horses with one previous win to their name are often over-bet