With Cheltenham and Aintree behind us I’m going to turn my attention to the Flat turf season and attempt to identify some profitable angles. Two-year-old races can be a turn-off for punters at this time of year as we’re usually dealing with a host of unraced horses but there are plenty of winner-finding angles…
Foaling Dates
Early foals enjoy an advantage over their younger rivals at this time of year. Backing all January foals in juvenile races (turf and all-weather) in Britain and Ireland in March, April, May or June would have seen the following results since 2016…
…244 winners from 1756 bets (13.9% strike-rate) for a profit of £113.13 to a £1 level stake at SP. The expected number of winners, based on their odds, was 214.00 giving a positive WAX score (winners against expected) of 29.91 and an actual over expected (A/E) score of 1.14 (anything over 1.0 is good).
This system is especially useful in the very early months of the peak Flat season (March and April)…
…the six qualifiers to run so far this year included 18-1 Bath scorer Anthelia for the Rod Millman yard, who also have a qualifier in the 5.10 at Kempton tomorrow (9 April) – BRIGHTLING.
February foals have also fared well in recent years (2023, 2024 and 2025), recording the following figures in March/April…
…there were no January foals in the Brocklesby at Doncaster last month, but the seven February foals included the 25-1 runner-up, 40-1 third and 12-1 fourth. They lost out to March colt Norman’s Cay, the 3-1 favourite owned by Amo Racing, who was a system bet based on an owner angle discussed later in this article.
Two-year-old newcomers
Blindly backing two-year-old newcomers at SP, regardless of foaling date or time of year, would have left us badly out of pocket, with the 2640 winners from 33642 bets (since 2016) resulting in a huge loss of £6009.42 to a £1 stake (-28.00% on turnover). However, this loss becomes a profit at Betfair SP (+£1078.54, +3.21% after 2% commission)…
…and it’s interesting to note the difference in strike-rate between colts, fillies and geldings…
…the geldings out-perform market expectations despite the very low strike-rate and returned a profit of 27.42% at Betfair SP (after 2% comm). I wouldn’t recommend this as a betting strategy given the tiny strike-rate and low CHI score of 0.46 (I’d be looking at a score of at least 2.0, ideally 4.0+ for a robust system) but I’d keep a close eye on Ralph Beckett-trained gelded 2yo debutants, whose career record under these conditions is as follows…
…a strike-rate of 14.42% and a profit of £52.35 to a £1 level stake at SP (double at BSP).
Splitting these runners by foaling month makes interesting reading, with the January and February foals producing the bulk of the profits…
Trainers
One of my favourite angles in juvenile races is to back Ed Walker’s runners on their second career start, especially those who were beaten on their debut but ran within ten lengths of the winner…
…a very healthy strike-rate of 23.98% and a lovely profit of £49.85 to a £1 level stake at SP (+£83.28 at BSP after comm).
Another useful second-time out two-year-old trainer angle is to back Andrew Balding’s runners. This is his record since 2020…
…the profit of £143.20 at SP is impressive, though it should be noted that the bulk of that was down to a 125-1 winner.
Sires
Regular viewers of GG’s Weekend Watch YouTube channel will know how much I rate the sire Night Of Thunder, whose juvenile offspring have produced the following returns…
…that’s a very healthy return but we can boost it by only siding with those who race on ground rated good to soft or softer by Proform…
Owners
When assessing unraced two-year-olds, breeding, trainer and jockey tend to be discussed more than who owns the beast in question, but this can be a useful angle. Juvenile newcomers owned by the Cool Silk Partnership often run well at big prices….
…Amo Racing also do well with newcomers (regardless of age and who trains them)…
Summary
- Back January foals in 2yo races in March/April (also give extra consideration to February foals).
- Back Ralph Beckett’s gelded 2yo newcomers.
- Back 2yo newcomers owned by the Cool Silk Partnership.
- Back newcomers (2 or 3yos) owned by Amo Racing.
- Consider Ed Walker and Andrew Balding’s second time out juveniles, especially those who were beaten but ran within ten lengths of the winner on debut.
- Consider backing all Night Of Thunder 2yos, especially on genuine good to soft or softer going.