One recurring theme in the hugely entertaining Barstewards Enquiry podcast concerns trainer Charles Hills and how his runners tend to go off the boil from the end of June. I thought I’d used this week’s column to check this out and to look for other trainers whose runners typically perform well in the first half of the season….
Charles Hills
The following table shows Charles Hills turf runners in Britain and Ireland since the beginning of 2021…
…it certainly looks to be a ‘game of two halves’, with a profit at SP in March, May and June but significant losses from July onwards (albeit his runners in August, September and October showed a profit at Betfair SP, after 2% commission). Backing Hills’ turf runners from March to June in the study period would have found 78 winners from 507 bets (15.38% strike-rate) for a profit of £108.04 to a £1 level stake at SP (+21.31% on turnover). The expected number of winners was only 63.90, giving a WAX (winners above expected score) of 14.10 and an actual over expected figure (A/E) of 1.22 (anything above 1.0 is good).
…his latest qualifier is EL MADAR who runs in the 2.55 at Brighton this afternoon (Tuesday, April 29th). Just for information, his all-weather runners in the same period showed a loss…
Splitting those March to June turf runners by horse sex makes interesting reading….
…with the fillies and mares showing a loss, albeit from a tiny sample size where mares are concerned. Removing the female runners gives the following overall figures for Hills’ turf runners between March and June (2021 onwards)…
…a very healthy profit of £146.74 at SP and considerably more at Betfair SP (+£272.74 after comm).
Ed Walker
Ed Walker, who like Charles Hills trains in Lambourn, is another handler whose turf runners show a good profit in the first half of the peak season (2021 onwards)…
…he does especially in May/June before the figures tail off. Grouping together his March to June runners gives the following total…
…a profit of £105.56 to a £1 level stake at SP (+22.75%) and £213.07 at Betfair SP after commission. Backing only the two and three-year-olds improves the strike-rate and profitability…
Archie Watson
Archie Watson, another Lambourn-based trainer, also performs well with his Flat turf runners in the early months of the season….
….his March to May total is as follows…
Summary
Charles Hills’ turf runners can be followed closely before the end of June, especially the males.
Consider backing Ed Walker’s turf runners before the end of June, especially the two and three-year-olds.
Archie Watson has made a good start to the current campaign and his turf runners should continue to perform well in May.