Already this month we’ve seen a number of ex-Sir Michael Stoute inmates score at the first time of asking for their new handlers, including Greenham winner JONQUIL at 8-1 for Andrew Balding and 10-1 Newmarket scorer MORE THUNDER for William Haggas, prompting me to take a detailed look at ‘stable switchers’. There are two main angles here – horses likely to improve when they join certain stables, and horses likely to regress when they leave others.
Let’s start with the positives…
Mick Appleby is the name that immediately springs to mind when thinking of trainers who can improve horses acquired from other yards. These are his career stats with ‘stable switchers’…
…108 winner from 653 runners (16.5% strike-rate) for a huge profit of £288.52 to a £1 level stake at SP (+£540.71 at Betfair SP after 2% commission).
Over jumps, Stuart Edmunds has a solid record at the first time of asking with horses he takes over from other trainers…
…scoring with 17 of the 74 qualifiers (23%) for a profit of £24.78 to a £1 level stake at SP.
Philip Hobbs and Johnson White haven’t fared so well, with 28 winners from 147 bets (19.1%) since 2010 for a loss of £26.58…
…however, splitting those by race types makes interesting reading, with the chasers doing remarkably well…
One of my favourite angles for ‘switchers’ on the jumps is to side with Harry Derham’s handicappers…
…these have achieved a phenomenal strike-rate in excess of 43% for a profit of £37.60.
Back to the Flat and James Owen is rapidly acquiring a reputation for improving other trainers’ cast-offs, scoring with 15 of the 52 qualifiers (turf and all-weather combined) for a profit of £22.68…
Harriet Bethell has only taken on 14 ‘switchers’ since the beginning of 2023 but four of them won…
…for a very healthy profit of £34.50 and she’s a name to keep a close eye on.
Archie Watson is another name who habitually over-achieves in this area…
The above yards have all done well at the first time of asking with new acquisitions but there are some trainers who specialise in scoring with ‘second-time switchers’…
Sandy Thomson is 18 from 88 on this angle since 2010 for a profit of £85.13….
…while Toby Lawes is another handler to watch under these conditions…
…albeit the sample size is much smaller, and the bulk of the profits came from 33-1 winner St Pancras at Musselburgh earlier this year.
When advising racehorse owners on potential purchases at the horses in training sales I am always wary of buying from trainers with a veterinary background, such as Mark Johnston or James Tate. Since the beginning of 2020, ex-Tate runners are just one from 73 at the first time of asking for new connections…
I would also advise potential buyers to steer clear of horses from the top Irish jumps trainers. In the past five years backing first time ‘switchers’ from Henry De Bromhead (-£69.92 to a £1 level stake at SP), Willie Mullins (-£73.50), Gordon Elliott (-£96.84) and Gavin Cromwell (-£129.01) has been a route to the poorhouse. Their five-year record combined is as follows…
…that 7.05% strike-rate drops to around 5% for those now trained in Britain.
On a more positive note, horses previously trained by Johnny Murtagh often improve for a change of scenery and backing the qualifiers who ran in Britain has been a profitable exercise…
Summary
Keep a close eye on the following trainers at the first time of asking with runners acquired from other yards…
Mick Appleby
Stuart Edmunds
Philip Hobbs & Johnson White (chasers only)
James Owen
Harriet Bethell
Harry Derham (handicaps only)
Archie Watson
Follow these yards closely at the second time of asking with ‘switchers’…
Toby Lawes
Sandy Thomson
Be wary of backing horses who have joined new yards from Henry De Bromhead, Gordon Elliott, Willie Mullins and Gavin Cromwell, especially when switching to British trainers
Consider backing ex-Johnny Murtagh inmates who are now running in Britain.