The all-weather is the main focus on Saturday when Newcastle stages the Northumberland Plate Handicap on the Tapeta surface. I want to use this week’s column to take a close look at the trends and angles that might help us to identify the winner of this two-mile heritage handicap and will also discuss some of the supporting races…
JenningsBet Northumberland Plate Handicap (Newcastle 3.15, Saturday, June 28th)
Overview
This race used to be run on turf, but Newcastle replaced grass with Tapeta ahead of the 2016 renewal.
Draw
This angle is rarely discussed in races on the round course at Newcastle, but it is very important. These are the winning draw positions (non-runner adjusted) for every Newcastle handicap over 1m2f+ since the Tapeta was introduced…
…pay close attention to the WAX (winners above expected score) for stalls 1 and 2. Figures of -14.72 and -12.30 are very poor and backing the two lowest stalls blind at SP would have returned a huge loss. The figures weren’t much better at Betfair SP either. Lumping stalls 1 and 2 together gives the following results…
…a loss of £713.39 to a £1 level stake at SP (-£550.49 at Betfair SP). The expected number of winners for these 1506 runners was 153.02, well below the actual score of 126, suggesting that a very low draw is a significant disadvantage.
The above stats don’t take field size into account but looking at races of ten or more runners only gives the following figures…
…a big drop in strike-rate from 8.37% to 4.55% and a loss of 61.83% on investment compared to 47.37%. Let’s hope that stalls 1 and 2 are occupied by fancied horses on Saturday, as it could create value betting opportunities elsewhere.
Running style
Newcastle’s round course has a well-deserved reputation for eating front-runners alive, largely thanks to the frequently occurring headwind (there is one forecast on Saturday) as well as the nature of the Tapeta surface. These are the running styles (L = Led, P = Prominent and H = held up) for all round-course handicap winners since the all-weather replaced the turf…
…front-runners (pace abbreviation = L) had just an 8.9% strike-rate and a negative WAX score of -17.21. In the nine Tapeta runnings of the Northumberland Plate horses who led or raced prominently have a combined record of just one win from 51 runners whereas those ridden patiently were eight from 125…
…that sole winner was 5-1 favourite WITHHOLD in 2018 who was described by the Racing Post as “made all at an ordinary gallop”. He won off a handicap mark of 99 that day but was rated as high as 113 subsequently after winning two Listed races. Trying to predict which horses are likely to be ridden patiently isn’t always as straightforward as glancing at a pace map, though Proform’s pace ratings have been a useful guide. Points are awarded for the runners’ last three races (Led = 4, Prominent = 2 and held-up = 0), producing a score of between 0 (least likely to lead early) and 12 (most likely to lead early). These are the ratings for the nine Northumberland Plates on Tapeta…
…runners with a rating of between six and 12 recorded just one win from 56 starts (WITHHOLD again), while those with a figure of four or lower landed the other eight renewals. Those with a Proform pace rating of zero returned a healthy profit (+£29.50 at SP, +£58.78 at BSP).
Horse sex
All nine winners were geldings. Colts (0-10), fillies (0-2), entire horses (0-8) and mares (0-5) failed to register a single victory.
Prep race
Two winners (from 29 runners prepped on the all-weather) and while they produced a loss of £10.50 to a £1 level stake at SP it’s worth noting that this angle found last year’s one-two (12-1 and 40-1) and ten of the 27 beaten horses finished in the top five. Those qualifiers who were drawn in stall 3 or higher with a Proform pace rating of four or less had form figures of 0230P40610006721 (2-16) for a profit of £2.50 at SP (+£9.78 at Betfair SP after 2% commission).
Conclusion
It’s too early to come up with a concrete selection at this stage as we don’t know the draw or final declarations, but EAST INDIA DOCK’s prominent running style is a concern, and I’ll probably look to take him on (he was 8-1 best at the time of writing). GOLDEN RULES (12-1) has made the running in two of his last three starts and could also prove vulnerable. Hold-up performer DUKE OF OXFORD (14-1), third last year, has form figures at this venue of 2343 (0-4) and is on my each-way radar along with ARTISAN DANCER (66-1) who I nominated for this race in Racing & Football Outlook after his best-of-the-closers third at Newmarket last month, though he’s currently 37th in the weights and might end up in the consolation race. My final thoughts will be available in my Best Bets column on the gg.co.uk website and I will also discuss this race in Thursday’s Weekend Watch on YouTube (like and subscribe!).
Supporting Races
JenningsBet Festival Northumberland Vase Handicap (Newcastle 2.45)
The consolation race for the Northumberland Plate takes place half an hour earlier and it could also pay to avoid those drawn very low or likely to make the running. More interesting though is the record of the higher-weighted runners – those who just failed to get into the Plate itself. Backing those with one of the three highest weight ranks would have found five winners from 33 bets for a profit of £17.25 to a £1 level stake at SP…
…those ranked tenth or lower in the weights had a combined record of 0-54…
Last-time out winners have also fared well, landing five of the nine runnings (from 25 bets) for a profit of £7.75…
…Hughie Morrison’s CAPRELO, who came late when scoring at Kempton last time, looks a likely candidate at this early stage.
JenningsBet Chipchase Stakes (Newcastle 2.10)
The Group 3 Chipchase Stakes is another highlight on Newcastle televised card and there are a few stats/trends that might help us to narrow the field…
Days since last run
Runners absent for more than eight weeks are 0-24 since this race was run on the Tapeta…
Finishing position last time out
Six of the nine winners ran first or second in their prep race. Backing all 29 qualifiers returned a profit of £17.88 to a £1 level stake at SP…
…those who had raced within the past eight weeks were six from 22 (+£24.88). There were no qualifiers last year, but this angle found the winner/third from two picks in 2023 and the winner from just one qualifier in 2022. All-weather expert FERROUS, who completed a hat-trick when landing a Class 2 course and distance handicap on May 11th, fits the bill this year. His full record on synthetic surfaces reads 2115111 (5-7), with the first defeat by a nose and the other by two lengths after challenging on the slowest part of the track and meting with minor interference.