In part two of my Statistical look at Royal Ascot I wanted to discuss some general angles regarding jockeys, trainers and prep races as well as taking a closer look at one of the relatively new races – the Golden Gates Handicap.
But first a quirky stat…
Since 2020, backing every runner at Royal Ascot would have returned a profit of £536.73 to a £1 level stake at Betfair SP (after 2% commission)…
…largely thanks to a pair of 150-1 juvenile winners – VALIANT FORCE in 2023 and NANDO PARRADO in 2020 – who returned a Betfair SP of 488.03 and 190.00 respectively. RASHABAR (80-1 SP, 120.60 BSP) also contributed a fair chunk of the profits. Backing only the two-year-olds at the last five Royal Ascots showed a profit at both SP and BSP…
…I’m not suggesting this as a betting strategy next week but it’s food for thought when it comes to spread betting and the SP of the winner markets.
TRAINERS
Given his dominance at the Derby meeting, Aidan O’Brien is likely to be the first name that comes to mind when discussing trainers likely to do well next week and his runners have shown a profit at Betfair SP (after 2% commission) this century…
…however, since 2020 O’Brien’s WAX (winners above expected) score is -2.13 and his runners have returned a loss at Betfair SP (-£34.55) and SP (-£55.31). William Haggas is another trainer in negative equity with his 71 runners producing just six runners and a loss of £26.33 at SP (-£17.78 at BSP). Andrew Balding (six from 131), Simon and Ed Crisford (0-26), Charlie Johnston (0-31) and Hugo Palmer (0-32) are other big names who have mostly struggled at the Royal meeting in recent seasons.
At the other end of the table, Kevin Ryan and Karl Burke have both overachieved…
JOCKEYS
Much Royal Ascot discussion revolves around jockeys, especially those who ride the straight course well (patient tactics are usually what is required). The now-retired (again!) Hayley Turner showed a profit here, as does Jamie Spencer. The riders with the best WAX scores this century are listed below…
Obviously, plenty of these are now retired but it makes fascinating viewing, especially the record of Johnny Murtagh. Taking races over 5f-7f only since 2020, the table, sorted by highest to lowest WAX score, looks like this…
…at the other end of the spectrum, David Egan (0-34), Sean Levey (0-29), Tom Marquand (1-39), William Buick (2-49) and Silvestre De Sousa (1-35) have struggled.
Interestingly, the jockeys who fare best over the shorter trips often struggle over trips of 1m2f or further, with James Doyle (0-32), Jamie Spencer (0-12) and Oisin Murphy (1-33) mustering just one success between them from 77 rides at the past five meetings.
APPRENTICE JOCKEYS
Jockeys claiming an allowance of at least 3lb have returned a big loss at both SP and Betfair SP since 2010…
…two of the six wins came in the 2m4f Ascot Stakes.
PREP RACE
When racing resumed after lockdown on 1st June 2020, plenty of the early Flat meetings were on the all-weather, especially on Newcastle’s Tapeta surface. This saw plenty of Royal Ascot runners line up on the back of an all-weather prep and backing all 86 qualifiers in the handicaps produced seven winners and a profit of £24.50 at SP (+£48.78 at BSP). This angle also produced a profit in 2021 (+£44.00/+£61.06) but the score in the past three years is just four from 80 for a big loss (-£50.00 at SP).
With Epsom still fresh in the memory there’s a danger that recency bias will lead us to favouring horses who ran well there last week but Royal Ascot handicappers who prepped on the Surrey Downs are 0-73 since 2020. Newmarket hasn’t been the greatest source of Royal Ascot handicap winners either, with just four winners from 176 bets (expected winners = 9.13, A/E = 0.44).
GOLDEN GATES HANDICAP (1m2f) (3yo 0-105) – Royal Ascot 5.35, Saturday, June 21
The final handicap of the Royal meeting is the Golden Gates over the 1m2f trip and, like the other middle-distance handicaps discussed in this column two weeks ago, the early signs are that a middle-to-high draw is needed. This race has only been run on five previous occasions, but low draws have struggled…
Those drawn in stalls 1, 2 and 3 had combined form figures of 000080048409968 (0-15).
All five winners were colts…
Backing all colts who were drawn in stall 4 or higher would have found five winners from 40 bets for a profit of £16.25 to a £1 level stake at SP (expected winners = 3.33, A/E = 1.50). Last year’s six qualifiers included the first four finishers (9-4, 17-2, 16-1 and 18-1). This angle also produced the 1-2-3 in 2023 and 2022 and the 1-2-3-4 in 2021. Baking only the colts drawn in stall 7 or above increased the profit to £27.25…
