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Cheltenham Festival

Arkle Trends – Festival’s First Grade 1 Chase by the Trends

A tribute to 3-time Gold Cup winner Arkle, this is the second race of the Festival and it’s been a launchpad for some serious open chasers of the future. In recent years there’s been a cloud around the chances of 5-year-olds. With the front two in the market both that age, I’ve looked at what it takes to land this race over the last decade and this century to see if they’re worth opposing on age alone.

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  • No winning second favourite since 2008
  • Nine runners were priced 6/4 or shorter this century and they all won
  • Only one runner in the last decade that was rated 161 or higher didn’t win, but was beaten by a higher rated runner
  • Will have won last time out and last ran between 31-60 days ago
  • Ideally has already won a Grade 1 but hopefully at least a Grade 2
  • Won’t have lost over fences more than once

Focused Trends

AGE

  • 5yo – 2/24 (8%) & 0/10 (0%)
  • 6yo – 9/24 (38%) & 6/10 (60%)
  • 7yo – 10/24 (42%) & 3/10 (30%)
  • 8yo – 3/24 (12%) & 1/10 (10%)

A big talking point in most seasons is about 5-year-olds not having won this race since 2006 where they used to be in receipt of a weight for age allowance. For this race now though, there is no allowance for age, just a 7lb mares’ allowance. We have two 5-year-olds heading the market so age might be a bit useless this time round but 6-year-olds have been profitable to back blind both this century and in the last decade. This is mainly thanks to Put The Kettle On who beat 5yo Fakir D’Oudaries with the help of her mares’ allowance.

PRICE

  • Favourites – 11/24 (46%) & 8/10 (80%)
  • Second favourites – 3/24 (13%) & 0/10 (0%)
  • Priced 6/4 or shorter – 9/24 (38%) & 6/10 (60%)

Favourites are profitable to back blind in the last decade for a 60% ROI however they run at a loss this century. Every favourite of this race priced 6/4 or shorter has won, with 9 from 9 this century and 6 from 6 in the last decade alone.

Second favourites are winless since 2008 but at that time they took 3 of the 4 running’s between 2005-2008. Maybe we’re due one, but it’s a sign that the market doesn’t often get this race wrong.

RATINGS

  • Winners with an OR of 157 or more – 11/24 (46%) & 8/10 (80%)
  • Winners with an OR of 161 or more – 7/24 (29%) & 6/10 (60%)

It’s not rocket-science to work out that higher rated runners probably have a better chance, but what is interesting is that all but one runner rated 161+ in the last decade won this race (Vibrato Valtat 2011 at 7/1 was 4th behind Un De Sceaux rated 166). This shows a modest £2.54 profit from the last decade to £1 stakes but it’s a ROI of 36%. This century it only makes £1.27 but it does show that when top tier Novices come in here, they tend to be well above the remainder of the field.

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LAST TIME OUT

  • Won last time out – 19/24 (79%) & 9/10 (90%)
  • Last ran in Leopardstown – 8/24 (33%) & 5/10 (50%)
  • Last ran 31-60 days ago – 13/24 (54%) & 8/10 (80%)

Most winners won last time out but that alone won’t make you a profit to back blind. Most winners last ran between 31-60 days ago, but this is the biggest loss maker for backing blind alone. Leopardstown has been a launchpad for 5 of the last 10 winners of this race, but it’s a big loss maker when backing blind. These are useful numbers to know, but they’re not profitable to use on their own.

COURSE FORM

  • Winners who had RUN at Cheltenham – 20/24 (83%) & 8/10 (80%)
  • Winners who had WON at Cheltenham – 12/20 (60%) & 4/8 (50%)

Most winners of this race had already run at Cheltenham but with most winners being younger horses it’s fine if a horse hasn’t had the chance to come here before now. Even those who had run here, just over half had won here too, so it’s a bonus if they have course form, and even better having course winning form, but it’s not essential.

CAREER FORM

  • Winners who had 2 or more WINS over fences – 18/24 (75%) & 9/10 (90%)
  • Winners who had lost no more than once over fences – 17/24 (71%) & 8/10 (80%)

Two of the winners who had NOT won more than once over fences only had one run over fences and 3 of the other 4 had 4 runs with 1 win each.

It’s around half of the winners who came into this race unbeaten over fences but most winners of this had not lost more than once over the larger obstacles.

GRADED FORM

  • Had already won a Grade 1 – 13/24 (54%) & 8/10 (80%)
  • Had already won a Grade 2 or better – 20/24 (83%) & 9/10 (90%)

8 of the last 10 winners had already won a Grade 1 but almost all winners had at least won a Grade 2 before now.

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