The Ayr Gold Cup is always a thrill to watch, with a big field almost always guaranteed, as well as a close finish. In another wide open year, Joe Napier looks into the race and gives his selection.
Julie Camacho enjoyed plenty of big days in 2023, with Significantly’s success here among the very best.
AMERICAN AFFAIR
(Jim Goldie/Paul Mulrennan)
Recent winners of the Ayr Gold Cup have rarely arrived out of form, so it is certainly a positive that American Affair is enjoying a great season. The four-year-old began 2024 rated 70, but form 1212231 has helped him sore 27lb in the handicap, as he races here with a 5lb penalty for a last-gasp victory in the Portland Handicap at Doncaster last weekend.
That performance was a career best given he was inconvenienced in-running and seven of the last nine winners have been “held up” or “in rear”, so his style of racing is suited to this. One issue could be the draw, as every winner since 2018 has been drawn in stall 12 or higher. Stall 4 therefore looks a problem, but he is as solid a contender as you could hope for otherwise.
RAMAZAN
(Richard Fahey/Oisin McSweeney)
With five runner-up finishes in eight starts since his previous victory, Ramazan’s bridesmaid status is difficult to shake off. Some of those seconds have come in big races though, such as this contest a year ago, the Victoria Cup at Ascot (over 7f) and the Great St Wilfrid Handicap at Ripon.
Unfortunately, his mark has kept rising, and is now 8lb above his last winning mark, but it feels unlikely his name will not be called as a contender within the last two furlongs. Stall 14 is a decent berth, though he can race keenly and prominently, which may make him susceptible to a closer too.
BILLYJOH
(Michael Appleby/Alistair Rawlinson)
Another so often on the guest list without a starring role, Billyjoh can also claim five second-placed efforts since winning at Chelmsford back in February. Mick Appleby has kept him busy, amassing 11 starts since then, though he too has run very well in big races: second in the Buckingham Palace Stakes at Royal Ascot, before a second and a third at Glorious Goodwood, the latter in the Stewards’ Cup off this mark.
That third was worth a massive upgrade given he was out the back and comfortably beat any other horse who raced down the centre. He was once again drawn wrong at York and had no chance from the back last time out, but a return to a mark of 95 in a race that usually rewards hold-up performers like him gives him a big chance of that coveted victory.
ROHAAN
(David Evans/Tom Queally)
Undeniably one of the best handicappers of the last few seasons, Rohaan is a two-time Wokingham winner who has also notched up three Group race successes in that time. Some may label him an Ascot specialist, but he was a close seventh in this last year and is 8lb lower in the handicap now.
Most of his form this term suggested he was now regressing, but on unsuitably soft ground at Ascot last time, he was a close third off this mark. He may be turning a corner back towards form, and we know he has the ability to scythe through big handicap fields. He is likely to be popular in the betting, but for good reason.
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Some potential 2000 Guineas clues could emerge from the Group 2 Mill Reef Stakes, which is the feature race at Newbury on Saturday afternoon at 3:15pm. Attracting a plethora of exciting juveniles, the Mill Reef Stakes is set to be a hugely competitive affair and our in-house tipster Steve Chambers previews the race and picks…
Fri 20 Sep 2024
THE FIELD
Goldie is the only Scottish trainer represented, but both of his boast chances. Jordan Electrics is another huge improver this term, enjoying a real renaissance aged eight, though he may now be handicapped to the hilt. Prominent racers Lethal Levi and Northern Express look to have a similar problem, though do have beneficial high draws.
As a result, it is worth looking at those who are usually dropped out, as they are favoured in this race. The three-year-old Room Service may not have the requisite experience for this race, and has been off since wind surgery in July, but won readily on his last start at Pontefract. He may still be Group quality, while Korker has tried for a while to win at that level, though his third in Listed company at York most recently reads very well with this track likely more up his street. Both are drawn high which could prove valuable.
Others of note are Mostabshir, who is on a threatening mark after a good run in the Stewards’ Cup, Pilgrim, who should go much better here than he did at York and Aramis Grey, who looks the best of the outsiders having run well throughout the summer.
VERDICT
American Affair could be found out by the draw, and there are enough box tickers whose hold up style and draws above stall 12 look to give them better chances. The top four are BILLYJOH, Rohaan, Korker and Room Service in that order. Billyjoh shades the vote after leaving a big impression when third in the Stewards’ Cup having raced on the worse part of the track and having too much to do from the rear. He should not be so inconvenienced today and rates a big chance with his latest York run easily ignored. Rohaan usually wins at Ascot, but is on a very tempting mark after a much more promising run most recently, while Korker has run well from the back on the Knavesmire twice most recently, which can be upgraded if able to transfer his form to this venue.
- Billyjoh
- Rohaan
- Korker
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