It is a puzzle which takes significant working out, so Dave Young has analysed the trends in painstaking detail in order for you to find the winner of the 2024 Ayr Gold Cup.
The event was established in 1804, and it was originally held at Ayr’s former racecourse at Belleisle. The Belleisle track closed in 1907, and the race was relocated and cut to 6 furlongs in 1908.
In the early part of its history it was restricted to horses bred and trained in Scotland. Roman Warrior in 1975 was trained in Ayr by Nigel Angus, and is the most recent winner trained in Scotland
The 2017 running was moved to Haydock so has been removed from some trends, such as Draw and Course Form. There was a Dead Heat in 2018 between Son Of Rest and Baron Bolt so some trends will be out of 25 rather than 24 and the last 10 will count as 11 in most cases (accept for where the 2017 Haydock running isn’t relevant).
KEY TRENDS
- Favourites have returned a 90% ROI in the last 10 runnings
- You want to be drawn in stall 8 or higher but ideally stall 12 or higher
- Preference is given to runners with an OR of 100+
- Will have run in the last 35 days or last ran at Goodwood (preferably the Stewards Cup)
- Ideally should have won at 6 furlongs more than once
- Will have at least 4 runs and probably 1 or more wins this season
- Favour horses with 8-12 on their backs or more
Focused Trends
AGE
- 3yo – 3/25 (12%) & 2/11 (18%)
- 4yo – 9/25 (36%) & 4/11 (36%)
- 5yo – 7/25 (28%) & 2/11 (18%)
- 6yo – 5/25 (20%) & 2/11 (18%)
- 8yo – 1/25 (4%) & 1/11 (9%)
Age is a little difficult to ascertain expectations (without paid subscriptions). It can be calculated by taking count of the number of each age, their SP (implied chance) and that then is used to suggest their run to expectation figure. However, you’d still expect some influx in the percentages as shown above so I think ultimately here we’re not drawn to an age bias and if you were to favour the winning most age of 4yo’s then I’d be applying that as the final straw.
PRICE
- Favourites – 4/25 (16%) & 4/11 (36%)
- 20/1 or Shorter – 21/25 (84%) & 9/11 (82%)
With a maximum field size now of 25 it’s still a huge field handicap, and as such there typically is only so short a favourite can be. That said, in the last 10 runnings we’ve had 4 winning favourites, but one of those was in a dead heat in 2018 and last years’ winner Significantly was a joint favourite. That means the level stake profit if splitting £1 in each race would be a loss of £5 or 21% loss on investment. However, in the last 10 years you’d be up £9 for a 90% return on investment I suppose you could look at the recent run of favourites in either one of two ways; favourites perform better now, or we were due some winning favourites. But, what has been consistent across both periods, is around 80% of winners being priced 20/1 or shorter. So, I would say that a huge-priced winner (in excess of 33/1) looks highly unlikely on what we’ve seen to date. But then much like the recent favourites, are we due one?
DRAW – (removed the 2017 running from Haydock from this)
- Drawn in the TOP half – 14/24 (58%) & 7/10 (70%)
- Drawn in the BOTTOM half – 10/24 (42%) & 3/10 (30%)
- Stall 12 or higher – 16/24 (67%) & 8/10 (80%)
- Stall 8 or higher – 21/24 (88%) & 10/10 (100%)
The draw is a curious one as there does appear to be a bit of a change in favour if high drawn winners in recent years, but we’ve had low stalls placing in that time too. The field size was reduced to 25 in 2015 which accounts for 9 of the last 10 runnings so that could be a red herring or possibly relevant. What is interesting is that all of the last 10 winners (excluding 2017 winner from Haydock but counting BOTH winners from 2018 dead heat) have been drawn in stall 8 or higher and this century almost 90% of the winner came from their too, so probably mark down those drawn in the bottom half if their in stall 7 or lower.
WEIGHT
- Carrying 9 stone plus – 17/25 (68%) & 9/11 (82%)
- Carrying 8-12 to 9-06 – 17/25 (68%) & 9/11 (82%)
The weight carried is another metric that is typically well spread but can be very helpful if there is a condensed typical weight range. In this race, we’ve seen mirrored figures when looking at winner carrying 9 stone plus or winners carrying between 8-12 and 9-06. It accounts for over 80% of recent winners in each band so it could be that the race is becoming a little more predictable than it used to be and I’d be favouring horse with 8-12 on their backs or more (19 of the last 20 winners and the other was 8-10). How much this whittles down the final field though is likely to be not a lot, but it could still help.
OFFICIAL RATING
- Winners with an OR of 100 or more – 15/25 (60%) & 9/11 (82%)
The average OR this century is 100 and the average OR in the last 10 runnings is 102 so there does seem to be a bit of class increase. Again though, we had the field size reduced, which means lower rated horses won’t get in as much so we can treat this with some caution. It is still apparent though that more winners are rated in excess of 100 now than there used to be but 2 of the last three winners were rated in the 90’s so I’d just be more inclined to look at the weight carried.
LAST TIME OUT
- Won – 5/25 (20%) & 3/11 (27%)
- Placed – 14/25 (56%) & 6/11 (55%)
- 5f to 6.5f – 20/25 (80%) & 9/11 (82%)
- 21 days or less – 13/25 (52%) & 5/11 (45%)
- 35 days or less – 21/25 (84%) & 9/11 (82%)
It’s a bit of mixed bag for last time out form of the winners as it’s just over half had placed last time out and just over half ran in the last 21 days. What is true of around 80% of winners is having run at 6.5 furlongs of less last time out and/or running in the last 35 days or less. The 4 winners who didn’t run inside the last 35 days all came from Goodwood, and three of those from the Stewards cup. So, I would say it’s relevant to have run in the last 35 days or to last run at The Goodwood Festival, preference to the Stewards cup.
COURSE FORM – (removed the 2017 running from Haydock from this)
- Winners who had RUN at Ayr – 12/24 (50%) & 4/10 (40%)
- Winners who had WON at Ayr – 2/12 (17%) & 0/4 (0%)
Location probably plays a part in why half of the winners this century have not previously raced at Ayr but even those who have, it’s not important to have won here by the looks of things. You’d obviously never look down on course form, even running well in defeat, but it’s by no means essential to land this race.
DISTANCE FORM
- Winners who had RUN at 6f – 24/25 (96%) & 11/11 (100%)
- Winners who had WON more than once at 6f – 16/24 (67%) & 9/11 (82%)
You’d expect that most winner will have run at the trip so the trends support this and while winning at the trip is another essential, winning more than once has seen an uplift in the more recent winners so I would pay attention to this
SEASON FORM
- Had 4+ runs this season – 25/25 (100%) & 11/11 (100%)
- Had 5+ runs this season – 20/25 (80%) & 8/11 (73%)
- Had 6+ runs this season – 16/25 (64%) & 6/11 (55%)
- 0 wins this season – 9/25 (36%) & 2/11 (18%)
- 1 win this season – 8/25 (32%) & 5/11 (45%)
- 2 or more wins this season – 8/25 (32%) & 4/11 (36%)
Given this race is run in the Autumn schedule it’s no surprise to see all of the winners have run 4 or more times this season and plenty have run more than 6 times. It does look slightly relevant that in more recent years, winners had fewer runs. This does have an impact on wins in the season though with around two thirds having no more than 1 win that season, but only 2 of the last 11 had not won a race already this term, but for the century figures that was true of 36% of winners. I’d be siding more in line with the recent trends on this one.
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