The season finale for British Jumps racing will see Willie Mullins unleash more ammunition, and this is a race he took last year with Minella Cocooner. He was the highest rated winner of the race since Tidal Bay in 2012, but he was one of three top-trend tickers for this race last season.
I’ve looked at all renewals this century and compared against the last 10 runnings to see if we can help find this year’s winner too.
KEY TRENDS
- Look for 7 and 8-year-olds but probably no older than 9-years-old
- Be wary of favourites and look to horses with an SP between 7/1 and 14/1
- Finished Top 3 last time out (preferably 3rd) and respect horses who unseated last time out
- Preference goes to runners who have not run or won at Sandown
- Furthest career win at 3-miles to 3-miles and 2-furlongs
- No more than one win this season but preferably has won this season
Focused Trends
AGE
- 6yo – 1/24 (4%) & 0/10 (0%)
- 7yo – 8/24 (33%) & 5/10 (50%)
- 8yo – 8/24 (33%) & 4/10 (40%)
- 9yo – 3/24 (13%) & 1/10 (10%)
- 10yo – 1/24 (4%) & 0/10 (0%)
- 11yo – 3/24 (13%) & 0/10 (0%)
7-year-olds have been profitable to back blind across both periods and they hold the highest strike-rate per number of runners by a long way too (21% to 8% nearest in the last decade & 14% to 7% nearest this century).
Favouring 7-year-olds looks to be a good idea but 8-year-olds win plenty too, so those ages are the preference.
PRICE
- Favourites – 2/24 (8%) & 1/10 (10%)
- 2nd or 3rd favourites – 6/24 (25%) & 3/10 (30%)
- Priced 7/1 to 14/1 – 14/24 (58%) & 7/10 (70%)
Favourites have a poor record in this race with 2023 victor Kitty’s Last the first favourite to land the race since Beau back in 2000. Backing both second and third favourites would find almost a third of winners and it shows a small profit across both periods.
The recent sweet spot with 7 of the last 10 winners was between 7/1 and 14/1 for an ROI of 17% to SP alone and it’s found 14 winners this century, but that period shows a 50p loss to £1 stakes on the 160 qualifiers.
RATINGS AND WEIGHT
- Winners with an OR between 140 and 151 – 12/24 (50%) & 8/10 (80%)
- Winners carrying 10-8 to 11-0 – 10/24 (42%) & 4/10 (40%)
Bit of tricky one to whittle down a range for both OR and Weight carried but there’s been a recent increase in winners rated between 140 and 151 which shows a small £2.25 profit in the last decade. It shows a loss this century, but it goes into profit if you increase the upper end to 153. All told, it takes a good horse to win this.
Weight carried sits profitable blind this century between 10-8 and 11-0 but it’s a loss maker in the last decade. When applying both measures together it’s a loss maker across both periods but it does show a 12% ROI if we increase the rating band up to 153 for this century’s figures.
LAST TIME OUT
- Won last time out – 4/24 (17%) & 2/10 (20%)
- Top 3 last time out – 12/24 (50%) & 6/10 (60%)
- Pulled Up or Unseated – 6/24 (25%) & 2/10 (20%)
- Last ran 16-60 days ago – 18/24 (75%) & 7/10 (70%)
Last time out winners are big loss makers in this race and while horses finishing in the Top 3 are profitable to back blind across both periods, horses who finished third are carrying those figures.
Plenty of winners had pulled up last time out or unseated and it’s the unseated runners who show a profit across both periods, suggesting they may have had a target in mind with things not going to plan but this was a suitable plan B.
Most winners last ran between 16 and 60 days ago which is a small loss maker across both periods but is profitable in each if you just followed 16-30 days since their last run.
COURSE FORM
- Winners who had RUN at Sandown – 11/24 (46%) & 3/10 (30%)
- Winners who had WON at Sandown – 2/11 (18%) & 0/3 (0%)
Sandown isn’t a track suitable for all horses but only 2 winners of this race this century had already won at the track. Most horses were having their first look here but even of those who had been here, the vast majority hadn’t won here. Hard to think that winning course form could be seen as a negative, but 47 horses have tried and failed in the last decade.
It’s been profitable to back all runners blind who haven’t raced here across both periods with an 11% ROI this century and 58% in the last decade to SP alone.
FORM
- Has their furthest win at 3m to 3m 2f – 16/24 (67%) & 7/10 (70%)
- 0 wins or just 1 win this season – 19/24 (79%) & 8/10 (80%)
Most winners had no more than one win this season and if you backed all runners who had exactly one win this season you’d be showing a 10% ROI this century and 41% in the last decade.
It’s also been profitable to back blind every runner who has their furthest win at 3-miles to 3-miles and 2-furlongs.
HEADGEAR
- Winners who were NOT wearing headgear – 14/24 (58%) & 3/10 (30%)
- Winners who were sporting Cheekpieces or Blinkers – 10/24 (42%) & 7/10 (70%)
Most winners this century were NOT wearing headgear but this has been a turning trend in the last decade. Backing all runners blind who sported Blinkers has been profitable but it’s a small loss maker using BSP for follow all runners who sported Cheekpieces.
HONOURS ROLL (This Century):
- 2024 – Minella Cocooner (IRE)
- 2023 – Kittys Light (GB)
- 2022 – Hewick (IRE)
- 2021 – Potterman (GB)
- 2019 – Talkischeap (IRE)
- 2018 – Step Back (IRE)
- 2017 – Henllan Harri (IRE)
- 2016 – The Young Master (GB)
- 2015 – Just A Par (IRE)
- 2014 – Hadrians Approach (IRE)
- 2013 – Quentin Collonges (FR)
- 2012 – Tidal Bay (IRE)
- 2011 – Poker De Sivola (FR)
- 2010 – Church Island (IRE)
- 2009 – Hennessy (IRE)
- 2008 – Monkerhostin (FR)
- 2007 – Hot Weld (GB)
- 2006 – Lacdoudal (FR)
- 2005 – Jack High (IRE)
- 2004 – Puntal (FR)
- 2003 – Ad Hoc (IRE)
- 2002 – Bounce Back (USA)
- 2001 – Ad Hoc (IRE)
- 2000 – Beau (IRE)