This column is the start of a new series of ante-post pieces for GG.co.uk, where I’ll be previewing some of the big upcoming National Hunt races as the early markets come out. We’ll begin with the coveted Grade One Betfair Chase at Haydock (Saturday 23rd November), won last year by Venetia Williams’ Royale Pagaille.
Headline Tip – L’Homme Presse 9/1 1pt WIN
The valuable contest has been won by some of the all-time National Hunt greats, Kauto Star was a four time winner, Cue Card and Bristol De Mai a three time winner, Silvianico Conti a two time winner, and more recently we’ve had the likes of Lostintranslation, A Plus Tard and Protektorat.
Last Five Renewals
2023:
- Winner – Royale Pagaille (9yo)
- Official rating – 160
- Seasonal debut
- Season prior – 2nd in G1 King George, 6th in G1 Gold Cup, Fell in Irish Grand National
- Previous course record – 1121
2022:
- Winner – Protektorat (7yo)
- Official rating – 164
- Seasonal debut (first run after a wind op)
- Season prior – 2nd in November G3 Paddy Power Gold Cup Chase, 1st in G2 Many Clouds Chase, 3rd in G1 Gold Cup, 4th in G1 Bowl Chase
- Previous course record – Course debut.
2021:
- Winner – A Plus Tard (7yo)
- Official rating – 172
- Seasonal debut
- Season prior – 2nd G2 Fortria Chase, 1st G1 Savills Chase, 2nd G1 Gold Cup
- Previous course record – Course debut.
2020:
- Winner – Bristol De Mai (9yo)
- Official rating – 169
- Seasonal debut
- Season Prior – 2nd G1 Betfair Chase, 2nd G2 Cotswold Chase, 9th G1 Gold Cup
- Previous course record – 11112
2019:
- Winner – Lostintranslation (7yo)
- Official rating – 161
- Second run of the season, won the Listed Colin Parker at Carlisle
- Season prior – 2nd C3 Chase debut, 3rd G2 Berkshire Novices’ Chase, 1st G2 Dipper, 2nd G1 Scilly Isles, 2nd G1 Golden Miller, 1st G1 Mildmay
- Previous course record – 6th in G2 Rossington over hurdles.
Notable Trends
- The official ratings of the last ten winners is between 160 – 174.
- Five of the last six winners (’23, ’22, ’21, ’20, ’18) were contesting their seasonal debut. The ’17, ’16, ’15 and ’14 winners had all previously contested the G2 Charlie Hall at Wetherby, two of them won (’17 and ’15), the other two finished 3rd in ’16 and 5th in ’14. The outlier is Lostintranslation, who won the listed Colin Parker Chase at Carlisle on seasonal debut.
- Four of the last five winners had contested the G1 Cheltenham Gold Cup the season before.
- Horses coming out of novice company generally tend to struggle.
- Seven-year-olds have the best record in the race, winning six of the nineteen renewals and four of the last ten, but generally there isn’t an age preference.
Leading Market Contenders
Grey Dawning is the current 7/4 favourite and has a similar profile to Lostintranslation, having contested the Golden Miller (won) and then the Aintree festival (3rd) last season, whereas Tizzard’s was second at Cheltenham then won at Aintree. At this stage, I have my reservations about Grey Dawning for this race and the 7/4 will largely depends on he runs this weekend. If he wins, or at least runs very well, then perhaps that 7/4 will be of strength however he doesn’t look a particularly good bet at this stage.
Corbetts Cross is installed as the 4/1 second favourite and he’s another one coming out of novice company. He’s a slight anomaly in terms of coming out of novice company, as he ran an excellent race in the G1 Bowl at Aintree behind Ahoy Señor and Gerri Colombe last season. It was perhaps somewhat of a surprise to see him run so well having bolted up in the G2 3m6f National Hunt Chase at Cheltenham. My concern with Corbetts Cross is that he isn’t the best of jumpers. I’ve no doubt he has a huge engine, but he was still novicey when a big drifter in a listed contest at Wexford last week, and I just wonder whether a race like this second time up could possibly come too soon in his open chasing career. I do think it will be further vital experience for him and on official ratings he’s bang there, but he might be one for later on in the season, perhaps the Savills Chase.
Ahoy Señor (5/1) is an intriguing contender and Lucinda Russell has earmarked this as his early season target. He’s almost an older model of Corbetts Cross, in the sense that he boasts a huge engine but can throw away his race with a single jump, which was the case in this race last season when pulling up. He posted a joint second highest career best RPR of 169 when a 2L 3rd in the Old Roan last weekend, giving 20lbs and 15lbs to the 1st and 2nd respectively. That was an eye-catching run that noted the attention of the stewards, but bar the odd error, it was a massive effort given he wouldn’t have been tuned up for it. The 5/1 looks skinny enough at this stage as I’d imagine he’d start that price, or even higher come the off, but should his jumping hold up then it’s hard to envisage him out of the front three.
Last year’s winner (5/1) Royal Pagaille bids to emulate Kauto Star, Cue Card and Bristol De Mai in winning back-to-back renewals of the Betfair Chase. We haven’t seen him since falling in the G2 Cotswold Chase at Cheltenham in January, and I think he might’ve finished second there had he not fell at the last. He was reportedly very sore afterwards, and Venetia being the patient operator she is, gave him the rest of the season off. This will be Royal Pagaille’s Gold Cup, and he is similar in that respect to Bristol De Mai. His record at Haydock reads 11211, his seasonal debut record reads 21221 and he’ll be contesting his third Betfair Chase, having finished second in it in 2021 behind A Plus Tard when sustaining a wound to his right hind pastern.
His stablemate L’HOMME PRESSE (9/1) is of major interest if turning up here. I thought his run in the Gold Cup was one of the best runs he’s put up yet, having jumped and travelled effortlessly throughout and there was a glimmer of hope at one stage on the turn that suggested he might be in with a shout of winning. He was headed two out and was only passed by Gerri Colombe and Corach Rambler before the last, two gallant stayers. The return to three miles on a more conventional track could see him bounce back to form at Haydock. He was probably never in prime form last year, having returned from a 391 day layoff in January after injuring himself in the King George, but he supposedly picked that up early in the race so the fact he was able to run so well up until unseating at the last was a testament to his ability. Even more so, when he beat Protektorat over an inadequate 2m6f in the Fleur de Lys Chase at Lingfield, who went on to take the Ryanair, and he lost nothing in defeat when second to Pic D’Orhy over a furlong shorter in the G1 Ascot Chase in what was undoubtedly a prep for Cheltenham, whereas that was the winners Gold Cup. He’s still very much lightly raced in Grade One company, but with RPR’s of 172, 170 x2 it’s only a matter of time before he grabs his first open Grade 1. He has a similar profile to some of the recent winners of this contest, and if he is to be fully tuned up for this race then at 9/1 he rates a solid proposition at this stage.
Official entries come out toward the backend of October for the first Grade One event of the season for what promises to be an unmissable event. L’Homme Presse gets the ante-post nod at 9/1. If he turns up here then I’d make him a 3/1 SP. His record fresh for Venetia Williams is exemplary, reading 1111, and his fluent style of travelling and jumping combined with his proven grade one form makes him a leading contender.
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