The Betfair Chase has rarely seen as competitive a field as it will in 2024. Nine runners go to post, and Joe Napier gives his verdict on the race.
Royale Pagaille continued his exceptional Haydock record with a defeat of Bravemansgame in the 2023 edition.
GREY DAWNING
(Dan Skelton/Harry Skelton)
An upcoming star who is a joy to watch in full flow, Grey Dawning is the Skelton’s stable star with a big season ahead. He danced many dances last term, racing six times, winning three, and getting his biggest day in the spotlight when gamely winning the Grade 1 Turners Novices’ Chase at the Cheltenham Festival, the last renewal of the race.
He has long been targeted at and fancied for this race and was a hugely impressive winner at this meeting in the Graduation Chase a year ago. His stamina should be assured, but his novice season ended with a bit of a whimper when easily beaten by Il Etait Temps at Aintree. That coupled with an unproven record of producing his best fresh makes him a favourite to take on.
ROYALE PAGAILLE
(Venetia Williams/Charlie Deutsch)
It is always worth taking heed of a course specialist in the Betfair Chase, with Bristol De Mai the most obvious example as a three-time Betfair Chase hero who loved the place. Royale Pagaille has now raced at the course on five occasions and has won four of them, only losing to Gold Cup winner A Plus Tard as Henry De Bromhead’s charge was on his way to the top.
The ten-year-old has won two editions of the Peter Marsh Chase off big weights in the handicap, and his success a year ago came with underdog status against Bravemansgame. There is none of that this year, but the form of that win looks fairly weak in hindsight and he has fallen on his two starts either side. He will give his best at this track, and the forecast rain is a positive, but looks vulnerable in this year’s race.
AHOY SENOR
(Lucinda Russell/Derek Fox)
Immensely talented, but a difficult watch if your money is on him, Ahoy Senor remains on just two Grade 1 wins, which seems low for one of his ability. However, there has been no downturn in his form overall, despite pulling up on his first two starts of last term, and he bounced back to his best when only narrowly denied by Gerri Colombe in the Aintree Bowl in April.
He loves Aintree, with much of his best form coming there, and he was a close third off 169 in the Old Roan on his return. That trip may have been too short, but he was a big eyecatcher, and there is a chance he will enjoy conditions at Haydock with rain due. With a more aggressive ride, his chances look solid, though it is closing in on two years since he won.
HEWICK
(Shark Hanlon/Gavin Sheehan)
A remarkable and consistent performer, Hewick has been one of the stories of National Hunt racing in recent years. He is the defending champion of the King George, and has maintained a high class of form since, finishing a close third in the Punchestown Gold Cup, second in a French Grade 1 over hurdles, and most recently a half-length runner-up in the Down Royal Champion Chase to Envoi Allen, a course specialist.
His recent staying chase form is the best on show here, so he does look overpriced. Nevertheless, while his second in France came on very soft going, there is a doubt about him on such ground overall, particularly over fences. He seems to be adapting to it though and having had two runs, his fitness is assured.
THE FIELD
Though he was only supplemented earlier in the week, Willie Mullins may well have had his eye on this contest for Capodanno for a while given his monitoring of confirmations. The eight-year-old won the Cotswold Chase with a fair bit in hand and is very capable on his day, though he badly needed his comeback last season. The intent to run him here will at least give backers some faith that he will be ripe enough.
Also in JP McManus’s colours, Gavin Cromwell sends over Limerick Lace from Ireland. The Mares’ Chase heroine went off as the joint favourite for the Grand National, so there must be confidence that she stays, though this is a marked step up in open company.
The rain is coming for French raider Gold Tweet. It is sometimes difficult to compare French form with that on these shores, but on balance, he has a fair bit to do to be competitive here. Bravemansgame might not run if the forecast bears out, though his Charlie Hall conqueror The Real Whacker is at least back in good form and may give this a decent go from the front.
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VERDICT
Lots of variables make this a particularly fascinating edition of the Betfair Chase. With plenty of forecast rain about, preference is for AHOY SENOR narrowly over Hewick, though if it manages to stay drier, Shark Hanlon’s charge would probably shade it. However, on soft, Ahoy Senor is more proven, and he may well be able to translate his best form to this track. His comeback run was highly encouraging, as both of Hewick’s have been, and recent match practice is preferred with plenty of others unproven fresh. Among those are both Grey Dawning and the supplemented Capodanno, though Willie Mullins’ choice to declare the latter suggests he should be fairly ripe for this, while none of course specialist Royale Pagaille, the mare Limerick Lace or Charlie Hall winner The Real Whacker can be completely ignored.
- Ahoy Senor
- Hewick
- Capodanno
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